MIL-OSI New Zealand: Weather News – Run of unsettled weather – MetService

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Source: MetService

Covering period of Thu 13 – Mon 17 June – A band of rain is moving onto New Zealand today (Thursday) and MetService has issued Heavy Rain Warnings / Watches around the country and Severe Thunderstorm Watches for Northland and Auckland. This kicks off what looks like a run of generally unsettled weather through into next week.

MetService meteorologist Lewis Ferris states: “With the band of rain moving onto the upper North Island today our Severe Weather team decided there was enough potential for downpours to issue a Severe Thunderstorm Watch covering Northland and Auckland. There are also Heavy Rain Watches in force.”

It’s important to note that any downpours associated with the Severe Thunderstorm Watch would be in addition to the widespread rainfall accumulations in the Heavy Rain Watch. As a result, small pockets around Northland and Auckland where downpours occur could experience localised impacts such as flooding and slips.

Bay of Plenty and Tasman are the two regions where widespread rain accumulations look to reach our Heavy Rain Warning criteria so are covered by Orange Warnings.

Other parts of the country are under Heavy Rain Watch between today and tomorrow as the rain moves in from the northwest. The upper half of the North Island is covered with moderate risk of thunderstorms embedded in the band of rain.

By Saturday morning most of the rain will have cleared across the country but showers look to pepper the western coasts of both the North and South Islands with Sunday likely to bring much of the same.

“After a damp day on Friday, there might even be some afternoon sunshine around Mystery Creek on Saturday for those attending Fieldays,” Ferris says.

While higher parts of the South Island will see some snow during this unsettled period of weather it’s unlikely to be the dump of snow to really kick off the season for the skifields.

As we move past the weekend it looks like more rain is due from the northwest thanks to a large, stagnant, low pressure system which is forecast to park itself in the Tasman Sea over the weekend and hang around into next week. This looks to be the main player in our weather next week and could even bring some rain to the dry areas of the eastern South Island.

Understanding MetService Severe Weather Warning System

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings (Localised Red Warning) – take cover now:

This warning is a red warning for a localised area.
When extremely severe weather is occurring or will do within the hour.
Severe thunderstorms have the ability to have significant impacts for an area indicated in the warning.
In the event of a Severe Thunderstorm Red Warning: Act now!

Red Warnings are about taking immediate action:

When extremely severe weather is imminent or is occurring
Issued when an event is expected to be among the worst that we get – it will have significant impact and it is possible that a lot of people will be affected
In the event of a Red Warning: Act now!

Orange Warnings are about taking action:

When severe weather is imminent or is occurring
Typically issued 1 – 3 days in advance of potential severe weather
In the event of an Orange Warning: Take action.

Thunderstorm Watch means thunderstorms are possible, be alert and consider action

Show the area that thunderstorms are most likely to occur during the validity period.
Although thunderstorms are often localised, the whole area is on watch as it is difficult to know exactly where the severe thunderstorm will occur within the mapped area.
During a thunderstorm Watch: Stay alert and take action if necessary.

Watches are about being alert:

When severe weather is possible, but not sufficiently imminent or certain for a warning to be issued
Typically issued 1 – 3 days in advance of potential severe weather.
During a Watch: Stay alert

Outlooks are about looking ahead:

To provide advanced information on possible future Watches and/or Warnings
Issued routinely once or twice a day
Recommendation: Plan.

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