MIL-OSI USA: SPC Jun 11, 2024 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

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Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

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Jun 11, 2024 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Jun 11 00:48:04 UTC 2024 (Print Version |   |  )
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table

 Forecast Discussion

SPC AC 110048

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0748 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Valid 110100Z – 111200Z

…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS…

…SUMMARY…
Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are possible across portions
of the southern High Plains of TX this evening. Otherwise, only a
few strong, to locally severe, storms are expected across the
central plains and the Southeast.

…01z Update…

Narrow corridor of strong/locally severe thunderstorms has developed
ahead of a progressive short-wave trough over the High Plains.
Latest radar depicts a mature squall line that extends from central
SD-NE Panhandle-northeast CO. This activity will shift east this
evening and gradually decrease in intensity as the linear MCS
encounters less buoyant air.

Farther south across the TX South Plains, an apparent weak
short-wave trough is rotating around a weak upper low that is
centered along the NM/TX border. Scattered strong/severe
thunderstorms have evolved ahead of this feature and are propagating
southeast into an air mass characterized by MLCAPE on the order of
1500 J/kg. Weak warm advection profiles and favorable inflow suggest
this activity may continue to grow upscale this evening. Ultimately,
a slow-moving MCS may evolve which will progress toward the Edwards
Plateau.

Significant convective overturning, along with a frontal passage
have stabilized much of the Southeast this evening. Surface
temperatures have cooled into the 70s across most of the SLGT risk
and convection should generally be sub-severe the rest of this
evening.

..Darrow.. 06/11/2024

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