MIL-OSI USA: SPC Jun 8, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

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Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

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Jun 8, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Jun 8 16:22:17 UTC 2024 (Print Version |   |  )
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table

 Forecast Discussion

SPC AC 081622

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1122 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024

Valid 081630Z – 091200Z


Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across the central High
Plains this afternoon, and then spread toward central Kansas this
evening. Significant severe winds up to 75-85 mph will likely be the
main threat with this activity, but isolated very large hail is also
possible. Scattered severe thunderstorms may also occur across parts
of Missouri and vicinity late this afternoon and evening.

…Central Plains…
Latest surface observations show a front draped from the central
High Plains into southern KS/northern OK. Modest low-level upslope
flow across eastern CO acting in tandem with an approaching
shortwave trough over the Great Basin will likely support convective
development by early afternoon over the higher terrain of the
central Rockies/Front Range. Steep mid-level lapse rates and robust
daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass downstream will foster
moderate instability along/north of the front from eastern CO into
western/central KS.

Current expectations are for thunderstorms to quickly become severe,
with 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear fostering updraft organization and
some threat for supercells initially. Large to very large hail will
be a risk with this more discrete convection. But, upscale growth
into an intense bowing cluster appears likely across parts of far
eastern CO into western/central KS by late afternoon/early evening
as a low-level jet gradually strengthens. Numerous severe wind
gusts, some potentially significant (up to 75-85 mph), should occur
with this bow through at least late evening as it moves quickly
eastward over KS. Latest guidance continues to show the greatest
large hail and severe wind threat in/near the Enhanced Risk, so only
small expansions have been made to the greater wind probabilities in
southwest/central KS with this update.

…Missouri and Vicinity…
A compact MCV is evident on visible satellite imagery over the
Mid-South/lower OH Valley late this morning. This feature will
continue moving quickly eastward today across the OH/TN Valleys. In
its wake, a rather moist and gradually destabilizing low-level
airmass will be present over MO and vicinity. While forcing aloft
appears nebulous over this region, most guidance shows scattered
thunderstorms developing by late afternoon or early evening across
southern/central MO in a moderately to strongly unstable environment
with somewhat enhanced west-northwesterly mid-level flow. Any
convection that can develop and be sustained would pose a threat for
large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two through the
evening. Given latest guidance trends, have made a small expansion
to the Slight Risk in southern MO.

Isolated strong to severe wind gusts may occur with any convection
that can develop over the Cascades in southern OR late this
afternoon and subsequently spread eastward through early evening.
With neutral to slightly rising mid-level heights, overall coverage
of robust thunderstorms should tend to remain limited.

..Gleason/Squitieri.. 06/08/2024


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