MIL-OSI USA: SPC Jun 4, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

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Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

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Jun 4, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Jun 4 17:36:33 UTC 2024 (Print Version |   |  )
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table

 Forecast Discussion

SPC AC 041736

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024

Valid 051200Z – 061200Z

…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MIDWEST AND PARTS OF TEXAS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY…

…SUMMARY…
Isolated severe storms will be possible Wednesday across the Midwest
including portions of Indiana and Ohio into Lower Michigan. Severe
storms may also occur across parts of south/east Texas to the Lower
Mississippi Valley.

…Midwest/Ohio Valley…
Height falls and strengthening cyclonic westerlies are expected via
a shortwave trough over the western Great Lakes, to the southeast of
a substantial mid/upper-level trough over the Canadian Prairies. The
potential for at least widely scattered early day precipitation and
cloud cover casts some uncertainty regarding the exact degree, and
preferred regional corridors, of more appreciable diurnal
destabilization within a moist airmass ahead of an
eastward-advancing cold front. However, parts of Indiana into
southern Lower Michigan and Ohio currently appear to have the most
diurnally favorable ingredients for severe storms. While multicells
capable of wind damage and possibly some hail should be the most
common scenario regionally, somewhat stronger mid/low-level flow
across Ohio may be conducive for a few supercells and possibly some
tornado risk.

…South-central/East Texas to Lower Mississippi Valley…
The region, mainly from east Texas northeastward, will be glancingly
influenced by a weak height falls and moderately strong
northwesterly winds aloft, but more directly by a probable MCS that
could be located across the ArkLaTex, or perhaps even a bit farther
south across Louisiana/east Texas around sunrise. This MCS may have
largely weakened by daybreak Wednesday morning, but some
strong/locally severe storms are plausible. Related convective
outflow may also regionally focus renewed storm development and
intensification into the afternoon. The details of storm
development/likelihood are more uncertain with southwestward extent
into south-central Texas and toward the Rio Grande, but a few severe
storms could occur if/where storms develop within a hot and very
unstable environment.

…Minnesota/Wisconsin…
Low-topped thunderstorms are expected to develop Wednesday afternoon
in the post-frontal environment characterized by limited boundary
layer moisture (40s to lower 50s F surface dewpoints) and steep
low/mid-level lapse rates. Relatively strong westerlies in the
cloud-bearing layer and around 25+ degree F diurnal
temperature/dewpoint spreads are suggestive of the possibility of
strong convectively enhanced wind gusts, and possibly some hail. The
region will be reevaluated into the Day 1 time frame for the
potential introduction of low severe probabilities.

..Guyer.. 06/04/2024

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