MIL-OSI USA: SPC Jun 4, 2024 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

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Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

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Jun 4, 2024 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Tue Jun 4 07:31:21 UTC 2024 (Print Version |   |  )
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table

 Forecast Discussion

SPC AC 040731

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024

Valid 061200Z – 071200Z

…NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST…

…SUMMARY…
Thunderstorms are anticipated along an expansive cold front from the
Northeast into the Southeast and Lower Mississippi Valley. The
probability of severe thunderstorms is currently low.

…Synopsis and Discussion…
A mature mid-latitude cyclone will likely be over far northwestern
Ontario early Thursday, before progressing southeastward into the
Upper Great Lakes throughout the day. At the same time, upper
ridging is forecast to build from the Southwest and southern Plains
into the Pacific Northwest. A belt of enhanced
westerly/northwesterly flow will exist between these two features,
extending from the northern Plains through the Mid MS and OH Valley.

At the surface, a cold front is expected to extend southward from a
low over eastern Ontario across western NY and eastern PA before
then arcing more southwestward along the central and southern
Appalachians and then more westward across the Southeast and into
central TX. Northern/eastern portion of this boundary is expected
progress eastward off the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic coast while the
southern/western portion only makes modest southerly progression
across the Southeast and TX. Much of the better low-level moisture
and greater buoyancy will exist from the Southeast into TX,
displaced south/west of the stronger mid-level flow and greater
vertical shear. This will likely limit the organized thunderstorm
potential, with a mostly pulse/multicellular storm mode anticipated.
A few damaging gusts may occur with thunderstorms along the front
farther north/east across the Northeast and northern Mid-Atlantic,
but limited buoyancy should keep coverage low.

..Mosier.. 06/04/2024

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