MIL-OSI Submissions: Economics – KOF Employment Indicator: labour market remains in good shape

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Source: KOF Economic Institute

Starting from a fairly high level, the KOF Employment Indicator fell slightly in the first quarter of 2024 compared with the previous quarter. This decline is the result of the deteriorating outlook in the retail, hospitality and manufacturing sectors. Overall, however, the Swiss labour market is expected to perform well in the current and coming quarters.

In the first quarter of 2024 the KOF Employment Indicator fell by 0.5 points compared with the last quarter of 2023 and now stands at 7.5 points. The indicator value has fallen slightly since mid-2022, when it reached a historic high. Nevertheless, the situation in the Swiss labour market remains encouraging. The indicator is still well above its long-term average of 1.5 points.

The KOF Employment Indicator is based on KOF’s quarterly Business Tendency Surveys. The evaluations for the first quarter of 2024 are derived from the responses of around 4,500 firms that were surveyed in January about their employment plans and expectations. On balance, the majority of survey respondents still consider their current staffing levels to be too low. In addition, the proportion of firms that would like to increase their workforces over the next three months exceeds the percentage of those planning to reduce their headcount. As the KOF Employment Indicator has in the past shown itself to be ahead of general economic tr

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