MIL-OSI Economics: Home Price Growth Falls Further in Fourth Quarter

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Source: Fannie Mae

WASHINGTON, DC – Single-family home prices increased 7.1 percent from Q4 2022 to Q4 2023, up from the previous quarter’s revised annual growth rate of 5.1 percent, according to Fannie Mae’s (FNMA/OTCQB) latest Home Price Index (FNM-HPI) reading, a national, repeat-transaction home price index measuring the average, quarterly price change for all single-family properties in the United States, excluding condos. On a quarterly basis, home prices rose a seasonally adjusted 1.7 percent in Q4 2023, a deceleration from 2.1 percent growth in the third quarter. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, home prices increased by 0.4 percent in Q4 2023.

“In the current supply-constrained housing market, any changes to the fundamentals of affordability are going to affect demand, and we saw this in the fourth quarter with interest rates peaking near 8 percent and helping further slow home price growth,” said Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. “Of course, the fourth quarter is also typically the slowest of the year in terms of housing activity and purchase demand, so seasonality should be taken into account, as well. For the year, housing demand held up surprisingly well, in large part due to ongoing demographic support – Millennials continue to drive demand in many areas – and generally strong household finances.”

The FNM-HPI is produced by aggregating county-level data to create both seasonally adjusted and non-seasonally adjusted national indices that are representative of the whole country and designed to serve as indicators of general single-family home price trends. The FNM-HPI is publicly available at the national level as a quarterly series with a start date of Q1 1975 and extending to the most recent quarter, Q4 2023. Fannie Mae publishes the FNM-HPI approximately mid-month during the first month of each new quarter.

For more information on the FNM-HPI, including a description of the methodology and the Q4 2023 data file, please visit our Research & Insights page on fanniemae.com.

To receive e-mail updates regarding future FNM-HPI updates and other housing market research from Fannie Mae’s Economic & Strategic Research Group, please click here.

Fannie Mae’s home price estimates are based on preliminary data available as of the date of index estimation and are subject to change as additional data become available. Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae’s Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae’s business prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although the ESR group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, current or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views published by the ESR group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management.

About the ESR Group
Fannie Mae’s Economic and Strategic Research Group, led by Chief Economist Doug Duncan, studies current data, analyzes historical and emerging trends, and conducts surveys of consumer and mortgage lender groups to provide forecasts and analyses on the economy, housing, and mortgage markets. The ESR Group was awarded the prestigious 2022 Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Forecast Accuracy based on the accuracy of its macroeconomic forecasts published over the 4-year period from 2018 to 2021.

MIL OSI Economics