MIL-OSI: Market Continues to Balance Out as Borrowing Costs Trend Higher

8

Source: GlobeNewswire (MIL-OSI)

TORONTO, June 03, 2022 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Greater Toronto Area (GTA) housing market conditions continued to evolve in response to higher borrowing costs. Similar to April results, May 2022 sales were down on a monthly and annual basis. Conversely, active listings at the end of May were up on a month-over-month and year-over-year basis. More balanced market conditions have provided buyers with more negotiating power. As a result, while benchmark and average home prices were up substantially compared to last year, selling prices trended lower on a month-over-month basis.

“Bank of Canada rate hikes, including the 50-basis point hike on June 1, are impacting home buyers in the short term. There is now a psychological aspect where potential buyers are waiting for a bottom in price. This will likely continue through the summer. However, as home buyers adjust to higher borrowing costs, housing demand will be supported by extremely low unemployment, high job vacancies, rising incomes and record immigration,” said TRREB President Kevin Crigger.

GTA REALTORS® reported 7,283 sales through TRREB’s MLS® System in May 2022 – down 38.8 per cent compared to May 2021 and down nine per cent compared to April 2022. The number of new May listings was similar to last year’s level and edged up on a month-over-month basis. With sales down and new listings trend flat to slightly up, the number of active listings was up on a year-over-year basis by 26 per cent.

Market conditions remained tight enough to support an overall average selling price of $1,212,806 for May 2022, representing an annual growth rate of 9.4 per cent. The MLS® Home Price Index Composite Benchmark was also up on a year-over-year basis by 23.9 per cent. On a month-over-month basis, both price metrics were lower, reflecting more balanced market conditions.

“Price trends observed over the past three months – both in terms of moderating annual growth rates and the recent month-over-month dips – are in line with TRREB’s forecast for 2022. After a strong start to the year, the current rate tightening cycle has changed market dynamics, with many potential home buyers putting their purchase on hold. This has led to more balance in the market, providing buyers with more negotiating power,” said TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer.

“The recent elections have shown that senior levels of government understand the need for more housing to support regional growth. The approval of new and more diverse housing types happens at the municipal level, subject to provincial laws and regulations. It will be important to understand the stance of local policymakers as we move toward the fall local elections. The shorter term impact of higher interest rates will not be with us forever. Supply remains the long-term challenge,” said TRREB CEO John DiMichele.

Summary of TRREB MLS® System Sales and Average Price May 1–31, 2022
  2022 2021
  Sales Average Price New Listings Sales Average Price New Listings
City of Toronto (“416”) 2,679 1,233,748 6,877 4,101 1,117,457 7,052
Rest of GTA (“905”) 4,604 1,200,621 11,802 7,802 1,103,219 11,541
GTA 7,283 1,212,806 18,679 11,903 1,108,124 18,593
TRREB MLS® System Sales & Average Price by Home Type May 1–31, 2022
  Sales Average Price
  416   905   Total 416   905   Total
Detached 814   2,552   3,366   1,914,890   1,432,951   1,549,498  
Yr./Yr. % Change -34.8 % -42.6 % -40.9 % 11.5 % 7.8 % 9.5 %
Semi-Detached 316   436   752   1,426,273   1,044,443   1,204,893  
Yr./Yr. % Change -29.1 % -44.4 % -38.9 % 7.5 % 14.1 % 13.2 %
Townhouse 267   984   1,251   1,045,874   958,558   977,194  
Yr./Yr. % Change -47.9 % -40.8 % -42.4 % 10.4 % 13.8 % 12.7 %
Condo Apartment 1,264   584   1,848   793,124   722,778   770,894  
Yr./Yr. % Change -32.5 % -29.5 % -31.6 % 10.5 % 19.7 % 12.9 %

May 2022 Year-Over-Year Per Cent Change in the MLS® HPI

  Composite (All Types) Single-Family Detached Single-Family Attached Townhouse Apartment
TRREB Total 23.89 % 22.83 % 23.64 % 24.93 % 28.29 %
Halton Region 16.95 % 16.32 % 19.28 % 13.51 % 24.53 %
Peel Region 28.66 % 27.73 % 28.07 % 29.80 % 35.11 %
City of Toronto 20.04 % 17.30 % 15.31 % 24.70 % 26.50 %
York Region 28.45 % 26.47 % 30.53 % 30.52 % 33.38 %
Durham Region 28.50 % 28.25 % 28.48 % 30.42 % 35.76 %
Orangeville 23.07 % 22.35 % 23.34 % 33.84 % 46.69 %
South Simcoe County1 24.89 % 24.00 % 27.76 % 28.87 % 31.92 %
Source: Toronto Regional Real Estate
Board      
1South Simcoe includes Adjala-Tosorontio, Bradford West Gwillimbury, Essa, Innisfil and New Tecumseth
 

Please note the methodology used to calculate MLS® HPI has been changed, For more information, click HERE.

Year-to-Date Summary of TRREB MLS® System Sales and Average Price May 2022
  2022 2021
  Sales Average Price New Listings Sales Average Price New Listings
City of Toronto (“416”) 15,129 1,202,309 27,597 20,283 1,046,292 30,031
Rest of GTA (“905”) 25,716 1,317,557 51,699 38,676 1,086,795 56,734
GTA 40,845 1,274,869 79,296 58,959 1,072,861 86,765
YTD TRREB MLS® System Sales & Average Price by Home Type May 2022
  Sales Average Price
  416   905   Total 416   905   Total
Detached 4,030   13,922   17,952   1,949,769   1,605,461   1,682,754  
Yr./Yr. % Change -25.8 % -36.6 % -34.5 % 14.4 % 22.1 % 20.9 %
Semi-Detached 1,362   2,362   3,724   1,490,389   1,173,963   1,289,691  
Yr./Yr. % Change -26.7 % -34.8 % -32.0 % 14.6 % 27.0 % 22.7 %
Townhouse 1,508   5,387   6,895   1,096,537   1,051,374   1,061,252  
Yr./Yr. % Change -32.7 % -32.2 % -32.3 % 17.8 % 25.7 % 23.8 %
Condo Apartment 8,124   3,810   11,934   808,540   740,306   786,756  
Yr./Yr. % Change -23.5 % -20.0 % -22.4 % 16.4 % 25.6 % 18.9 %

Source: Toronto Regional Real Estate Board

Seasonally Adjusted TRREB MLS® Sales and Average Price1  
         
  Sales Month-over-Month % Chg. Average Price Month-over-Month % Chg.
May ’21 10,599 -3.9 % $ 1,072,561 1.7 %
June ’21 10,015 -5.5 % $ 1,074,565 0.2 %
July ’21 9,685 -3.3 % $ 1,083,025 0.8 %
August ’21 9,094 -6.1 % $ 1,111,997 2.7 %
September ’21 8,977 -1.3 % $ 1,135,667 2.1 %
October ’21 9,624 7.2 % $ 1,152,123 1.4 %
November ’21 9,196 -4.4 % $ 1,179,538 2.4 %
December ’21 8,942 -2.8 % $ 1,209,971 2.6 %
January ’22 8,689 -2.8 % $ 1,272,867 5.2 %
February ’22 9,351 7.6 % $ 1,288,923 1.3 %
March ’22 8,011 -14.3 % $ 1,258,201 -2.4 %
April ’22 6,842 -14.6 % $ 1,214,077 -3.5 %
May ’22 6,207 -9.3 % $ 1,176,368 -3.1 %
Source: Toronto Regional Real Estate Board; CREA Seasonal Adjustment. 1 Preliminary seasonal adjustment undertaken by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA).  Removing normal seasonal variations allows for more meaningful analysis of monthly changes and underlying trends.

READ THE FULL REPORT.


Media Inquiries:
Genevieve Grant, Public Affairs Specialist genevieve.grant@trreb.ca 416-443-8159

The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board is Canada’s largest real estate board with more than 67,000 residential and commercial professionals connecting people, property and communities.

www.trreb.ca/

https://www.facebook.com/groups/trebypn/
https://twitter.com/TheReal_TRREB
https://www.youtube.com/user/TREBChannel
http://www.linkedin.com/company/toronto-regional-real-estate-board/
https://www.instagram.com/thereal_trreb/
https://www.trrebwire.ca/

The MIL Network