MIL-OSI Translation: Preliminary accounting results of gross domestic product (GDP) for the third quarter of 2021

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MIL OSI Translation. Region: Peoples Republic of China-China Statistical Information Network-Chinese-

  According to the relevant basic data and national economic accounting methods, the main results of the preliminary accounting of China’s gross domestic product (hereinafter referred to as GDP) in the third quarter of 2021 are as follows:

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Table 1   GDP preliminary accounting data for the third quarter of 2021

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Total current price (100 million yuan)

Increase over the same period last year (%)

Q3

1-3 quarters

Q3

1-3 quarters

GDP

290964

823131

4.9

9.8

primary industry

23028

51430

7.1

7.4

Secondary industry

113786

320940

3.6

10.6

Tertiary Industry

154150

450761

5.4

9.5

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Agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery

24007

53758

7.1

7.4

industry

93034

267640

4.9

12.0

#manufacturing

77373

225896

4.6

12.5

Construction industry

21202

54538

-1.8

4.3

Wholesale and retail

27972

78867

7.6

13.5

Transportation, storage and postal industry

12753

35457

5.9

15.3

Accommodation and Catering Industry

4830

13058

5.7

19.4

Financial industry

23398

69035

4.0

4.5

Real estate industry

18775

58517

-1.6

8.2

Information transmission, software and information technology service industry

10488

33675

17.1

19.3

Leasing and business services

8663

24127

5.8

6.5

other industry

45841

134458

5.2

6.7

Note:

1. The total amount is calculated at current prices, and the growth rate is calculated at constant prices;

2. The classification of the three industries is based on the “Regulations on the Classification of the Three Industries” revised by the National Bureau of Statistics in 2018;

3. The industry classification adopts the “National Economic Industry Classification (GB/T 4754-2017)”;

4. In the total GDP data in this table, some are not equal to the sum of each industry (industry), but are caused by numerical rounding errors and have not been mechanically adjusted.

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Table 2   GDP growth rate year-on-year

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unit:%

years

1 quarter

Q2

Q3

4th quarter

2016

6.9

6.8

6.8

6.9

2017

7.0

7.0

6.9

6.8

2018

6.9

6.9

6.7

6.5

2019

6.3

6.0

5.9

5.8

2020

-6.8

3.2

4.9

6.5

2021

18.3

7.9

4.9

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Note: The year-on-year growth rate is the growth rate compared with the same period last year.

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Table 3   GDP growth rate month-on-month

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unit:%

years

1 quarter

Q2

Q3

4th quarter

2016

1.4

2.0

1.7

1.6

2017

1.8

1.7

1.6

1.7

2018

1.8

1.6

1.3

1.6

2019

1.6

1.2

1.3

1.6

2020

-9.5

10.7

2.9

3.2

2021

0.2

1.2

0.2

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Note: The month-on-month growth rate is the growth rate compared with the previous quarter after seasonal adjustment.

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   For other relevant accounting results, please refer to the database of the National Bureau of Statistics (http://data.stats.gov.cn).

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Appendix:

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China’s GDP quarterly accounting instructions

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  1. Overview of quarterly GDP accounting

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  1.1 Basic concepts

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   GDP is the final result of the production activities of all resident units in a country during a certain period of time. GDP is the core indicator of national economic accounting, and it is also an important indicator to measure a country’s economic status and level of development.

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   There are three methods of GDP accounting, namely production method, income method and expenditure method. The three methods reflect the results of national economic production activities from different angles. The production method is a method of removing the value of intermediate goods and services input in the production process from the value of goods and services created in the production process to obtain added value. The calculation formula for the value-added of the production method of various industries in the national economy is as follows: value-added = total output-intermediate input. The added value of the production method of the various sectors of the national economy is added together to obtain the gross domestic product of production in France. The income method is to calculate the results of production activities from the perspective of the formation of income during the production process. According to this calculation method, the added value is composed of four parts: labor compensation, net production tax, depreciation of fixed assets and operating surplus. The calculation formula is: value-added = labor compensation + net production tax + depreciation of fixed assets + operating surplus. The sum of the value added by the income method of the various sectors of the national economy is equal to the gross domestic product of income in France. The expenditure method is a method of calculating GDP from the perspective of the final use of the results of production activities. Final use includes three parts: final consumption expenditure, total capital formation, and net exports of goods and services.

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   The quarterly GDP released by the National Bureau of Statistics is the result of accounting based on the production method.

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  1.2 Accounting range

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  1.2.1 Production scope

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The scope of production for GDP accounting includes the following four parts: first, the production of goods or services that the producer provides or prepares to provide to other units; second, the self-sufficiency of all goods used by the producer for its own final consumption or the formation of fixed capital Production; third, the self-sufficient production of knowledge carrier products by producers for their own final consumption or the formation of fixed capital, but does not include similar activities undertaken by the household sector; fourth, housing services provided by their own houses, and Self-sufficient production of family and personal services provided by paid family service personnel. The scope of production does not include unpaid family and personal services, natural activities without unit control (such as wild, uncultivated forests, the natural growth of wild fruits or berries, the natural increase of the number of fish in the high seas), etc.

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  1.2.2 Scope of the main body of production activities

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   The main scope of GDP production activities includes all resident units that have a center of economic interest within China’s economic territory. The quarterly GDP data in this report is the national data calculated by the National Bureau of Statistics. It does not include the GDP data of Hong Kong, Macau Special Administrative Region and Taiwan Province.

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  1.3 Accounting unit

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   GDP accounting mainly uses legal person units as accounting units. In accounting, legal person units are divided into different industries according to their main activities, and the added value of each industry is calculated separately, and then the added value of each industry is aggregated to obtain GDP.

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  1.4 Accounting frequency

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  The accounting frequency is quarterly. From the first quarter of 1992 to the second quarter of 2015, China uses the cumulative accounting method to calculate quarterly GDP, that is, to calculate the GDP data of the first quarter, 1-2 quarter, 1-3 quarter and 1-4 quarter of each year, 1-4 The preliminary accounting of quarterly GDP is the preliminary accounting of annual GDP. Starting from the third quarter of 2015, the quarterly accounting method has been changed, that is, the GDP data of the first quarter, the second quarter, the third quarter and the fourth quarter of each year are calculated separately, and the cumulative data is obtained by adding the current quarterly data.

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   Since the first quarter of 2011, the National Bureau of Statistics has officially released the quarter-on-quarter GDP growth rate.

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  1.5 Legal basis and system regulations

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   GDP accounting strictly abides by the “Statistical Law of the People’s Republic of China”. At present, China’s GDP is measured in accordance with the requirements of the China National Accounts System (2016), which has adopted the basic accounting principles, content and methods of the United Nations System of National Accounts (2008).

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  1.6 Confidentiality

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  In accordance with the provisions of Article 9 of Chapter 1 of the “Statistical Law of the People’s Republic of China”, statistical agencies and statisticians shall keep confidential the state secrets, commercial secrets, and personal information that they learn in their statistical work.

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   The national economic accountants keep strictly confidential the undisclosed professional statistical data and administrative record data used in GDP accounting, and keep the current GDP data strictly confidential before the GDP accounting data is released.

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  1.7 User requirements

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  The domestic users of quarterly GDP data are mainly government departments, research institutions, universities, industry associations, media, and the general public. In addition, the National Bureau of Statistics regularly provides China’s quarterly GDP data to international organizations such as the United Nations, the International Monetary Fund, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, and the Asian Development Bank.

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   2. Quarterly GDP accounting method

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  2.1 Classification system

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  In the quarterly GDP accounting, the industry classification is based on the China National Economic Industry Classification Standard and the three industry classification standards, and two classification methods are adopted.

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   The first classification is the classification of national economic industries, which adopts the “Classification of National Economic Industries (GB/T 4754-2017)” promulgated by the National Standards Administration in 2017. Two-level classification is used in actual accounting.

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The first level of classification is based on the categories of the national economic industry classification, which is divided into agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, industry, construction, wholesale and retail, transportation, storage and postal services, accommodation and catering, and financial industries. , The real estate industry, information transmission, software and information technology service industry, leasing and business service industry, other industries and other 11 industries. The industry includes mining, manufacturing, electricity, heat, gas and water production and supply industries; other industries include scientific research and technical services, water conservancy, environment and public facilities management, residential services, repairs and others There are 7 industries including service industry, education, health and social work, culture, sports and entertainment industry, public management, social security and social organization.

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   The second-level classification is based on the first-level classification and subdivides part of the national economic industry classification into industry categories.

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   The second classification is the three industry classifications, which are divided into primary industry, secondary industry and tertiary industry according to the “Regulations on the Classification of Three Industries” revised by the National Bureau of Statistics in 2018. Primary industry refers to agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (excluding agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery and auxiliary activities); secondary industry refers to mining industry (excluding mining professional and auxiliary activities), manufacturing ( Excluding metal products, machinery and equipment repair industry), electricity, heat, gas and water production and supply industry, construction industry; tertiary industry is service industry, refers to other industries except primary industry and secondary industry (excluding International organizations).

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  2.2 Source of information

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   In quarterly GDP accounting, all applicable economic statistical survey data that can be obtained at the time of accounting are used for GDP accounting. The data source mainly includes two parts:

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The first is national statistical survey data, which refers to various statistical data obtained by statistical surveys conducted by the national statistical system, such as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, industry, construction, wholesale and retail, accommodation and catering, real estate, and services above designated size. Statistics and survey data, population and labor wage statistics, price statistics, etc.

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The second is the administrative records of the administrative departments, which mainly include: the relevant data of the Ministry of Finance, the People’s Bank of China, the State Administration of Taxation, the China Banking Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission and other administrative departments, such as the domestic and foreign currency credit receipts and expenditures of the financial institutions of the People’s Bank of China, and the State Administration of Taxation. Tax information by industry, etc.

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  2.3 Accounting method

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  2.3.1 Current price value-added accounting method

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  According to the information source, the quarterly current price value-added accounting mainly adopts the value-added rate method, the calculation of related value indicators, and the use of constant prices to calculate the current price.

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  2.3.1.1 The speed calculation algorithm of related value indicators

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The related value quantity index speed calculation algorithm is to use the current price growth rate of the relevant value quantity index to calculate the current price value-added growth rate, and then multiply the current price value-added growth rate calculated by the current price value-added growth rate in the same period of the previous year to obtain the current current price value-added value. The calculation formula for:

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   Value-added at current price = Value-added at current price in the same period of the previous year × (1 + increase rate of value-added at current price)

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   Among them, the growth rate of value added at current price is determined according to the current price growth rate of relevant value quantity indicators in the current period, and the quantitative relationship between the growth rate of current price value added in previous years and the current price growth rate of relevant value quantity indicators.

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  2.3.1.2 Using constant prices to estimate current prices

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   First use the volume index extrapolation method to obtain the value-added at the current constant price, and then calculate the value-added at the current price based on the relevant price index. The calculation formula is:

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   value-added at current price = value-added at constant price x price index

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  2.3.2 Calculation method of value-added at constant price

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   Constant price value added is the conversion of the value added calculated at the current price into the value calculated at the price of a fixed period (base period), thereby eliminating the influence of price changes, so that the value of different periods can be compared. Value added at constant price is calculated using a fixed base period method. The base period is currently changed every 5 years. The base period for value added at constant price from 2021 to 2025 is 2020.

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  The quarterly constant price value-added accounting mainly adopts the price index reduction method and the related volume index extrapolation method.

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  2.3.2.1 Price index reduction method

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  Using the relevant price index to directly reduce the value-added at the current price and calculate the value-added at the constant price, the calculation formula is:

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   Value-added at constant price of an industry = Value-added at current price of the industry ÷ Price index

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  2.3.2.2 Volume index extrapolation method

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  Using the growth rate of relevant volume indicators to calculate the growth rate of value-added at constant price, and then use the value-added at constant price in the same period of the previous year and the calculated growth rate of value-added at constant price to calculate the value-added at constant price for the current period. The calculation formula is:

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   The value-added at constant price of an industry = the value-added at constant price of the industry in the same period last year × (1 + the growth rate of value-added at constant price of the industry)

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   Among them, the growth rate of value-added at constant price is determined according to the growth rate of relevant volume indicators in the current period, and the quantitative relationship between the growth rate of value-added at constant price in previous years and the growth rate of related volume indicators.

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  2.4 Seasonal adjustment

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   The quarter-on-quarter GDP growth rate is the result of comparing the quarterly value-added data with the value-added data of the previous quarter. In the calculation, the influence of seasonal factors on the time series must be eliminated, and the time series must be adjusted seasonally using the Seasonal Adjustment Software (NBS-SA) of the National Bureau of Statistics. NBS-SA is developed on the basis of the more commonly used seasonal adjustment software in the world, taking into account the unique seasonal factors in China. The software adds a new module to deal with China’s unique seasonal factors, which effectively eliminates China’s unique seasonal factors, including mobile holiday factors such as the Spring Festival, Dragon Boat Festival, Mid-Autumn Festival, and the number of working days per week from the original 6-day system to the 5-day system. , Holiday changes and change factors brought about by the adjustment of holidays, etc.

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  3. Revised quarterly GDP data

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  3.1 The necessity of revision

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   The preliminary quarterly GDP accounting has strong requirements for timeliness and is generally announced about 15 days after the quarter. At this time, all the basic data required for GDP accounting cannot be obtained. Therefore, the preliminary quarterly GDP accounting is calculated using professional statistical progress data and related indicators. After that, as the basic data available continues to increase and improve, more complete basic data will be used, such as professional statistical annual reports, industry financial data, and financial final accounts data to revise GDP data to more accurately reflect the actual economic development. Condition.

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  3.2 Revision procedure

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  According to the newly reformed GDP accounting and data release system of the National Bureau of Statistics, China’s quarterly GDP accounting is divided into two steps: preliminary accounting and final verification. Usually, after the final verification of annual GDP, quarterly data must be revised, which is called regular revision; after the national economic census is carried out, new basic information that has a greater impact on GDP data is discovered, or calculation methods and classification standards have changed. After the annual GDP historical data is revised, the quarterly GDP historical data must be revised accordingly, which is called a comprehensive revision.

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  3.3 Revision method

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   3.3.1 Revision of quarterly data

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   China’s current method of revising quarterly GDP data is the proportional convergence method, that is, the method of adjusting quarterly data using the difference between the annual benchmark value and the aggregated figures for the four quarters of the year. The basic approach of the proportional connection method is: First, the current and constant value added values ​​of various industries in the national economy are connected separately. GDP and the three industries’ added value are the sum of the added value of the industries after the connection. The connection method of constant price GDP and constant price added value of the three industries is the same as the current price.

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  3.3.2 Revision of the chain data

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Since the object of seasonal adjustment is time series data, when any quarter data in the time series changes, it will affect the results of the seasonal adjustment; adding the latest quarter data to the time series will also make the previous quarter’s quarter-on-quarter comparison. The data changes more or less, which is the result of the model’s automatic correction. According to the principle of seasonal adjustment, under normal circumstances, the period closer to the latest data time will have a greater impact on the data; the period farther away from the latest data time will have less impact on the data. For the convenience of users, when the current quarter-on-quarter data is released, the revised quarter-on-quarter data of the previous quarter will be released through the website of the National Bureau of Statistics.

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  4. Quarterly GDP data quality assessment

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  4.1 Evaluation of basic data

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   Regarding the professional statistical data and administrative record data used in GDP accounting, the relevant departments will inspect their quality to ensure that the data reasonably reflect the actual situation of economic development. When the GDP accounting department obtains these basic data, it will check the completeness and accuracy of the data again to ensure that these data meet the concepts and requirements of GDP accounting.

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  4.2 Evaluation of accounting methods

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  In GDP accounting, the GDP accounting department will revise China’s quarterly GDP accounting method based on the actual situation of China’s continuously developing economy and the ever-improving national economic accounting standards to ensure the rationality of the accounting method.

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  4.3 Evaluation of the accounting results

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   After obtaining the quarterly GDP accounting results, it is necessary to check the coordination of the GDP data, GDP data and related professional, departmental statistical data, and macro data to ensure the coordination and matching of GDP data and other major data. A system for evaluating basic statistical data of various professions and departments with national economic accounting as the core framework is being established.

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  4.4 Comparability of data

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   “China National Accounts System (2016)” adopted the basic accounting principles, content and methods of the United Nations “System of National Accounts (2008)”, so GDP data is internationally comparable.

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   After the national economic census was carried out or the calculation method and classification standards were changed, the quarterly GDP historical data was revised. Therefore, the quarterly GDP time series since the first quarter of 1992 are comparable.

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   5. Quarterly GDP data released

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  5.1 Release time

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  The preliminary calculation of quarterly GDP is generally released around 15 days after the quarter, and the final verification of quarterly GDP is generally released in January of the following year. For the release of major statistical indicators, the National Bureau of Statistics will specify the release date in the “Main Statistical Information Release Calendar” released at the beginning of the year, and GDP data will be released on a prescribed schedule.

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  5.2 Release method

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The preliminary calculation of quarterly GDP is published in the quarterly national economic operation press conference, the website of the National Bureau of Statistics (www.stats.gov.cn), and the “China Monthly Economic Report”; the final verification of quarterly GDP is in the National Statistics Database (http://www.stats.gov.cn) ://data.stats.gov.cn/) and published in the “China Monthly Economic Report”. The time series of quarterly GDP data since the first quarter of 1992 can be queried through the national statistical database (http://data.stats.gov.cn/).

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EDITOR’S NOTE: This article is a translation. Apologies should the grammar and/or sentence structure not be perfect.

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