MIL-OSI USA: SPC Oct 15, 2021 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

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Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

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Oct 15, 2021 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Oct 15 17:11:15 UTC 2021 (Print Version |   |  )
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table

 Forecast Discussion

SPC AC 151711

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1211 PM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021

Valid 161200Z – 171200Z

…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHEASTERN U.S….

…SUMMARY…
Potential for a few damaging wind gusts will exist across portions
of the Northeast and vicinity on Saturday.

…Synopsis and Discussion…
A deep upper trough is forecast to extend from northern Manitoba
across western Ontario, the Upper Great Lakes/Upper Midwest, and
the Mid MS Valley early Saturday. This upper trough is expected to
move northeastward throughout the day, encouraged by the fast
northeastward progression of an embedded shortwave trough moving
from the middle OH Valley/Lower MI through the Northeast into New
England. A surface low attendant to this embedded shortwave is
expected to begin the period over far southern Quebec before
continuing northward while occluding. Cold front attendant to this
low will push eastward throughout the day, from its early morning
position just east of the Appalachian crest to off the Eastern
Seaboard. By early Sunday morning, the front will likely have moved
entirely offshore, with the exception of South Florida and the Keys.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of this front,
with the strong flow aloft in place from northern Mid-Atlantic into
New England contributing to the potential for a few more robust
storms capable of damaging wind gusts. However, the overall severe
threat is expected to remain isolated, owing to limited
heating/buoyancy ahead of the front. Most likely corridor for strong
gusts currently appears to be from eastern PA northeastward across
northern/central NJ and the Hudson Valley into western MA/CT.

Stable conditions are expected across the remainder of the CONUS,
precluding thunderstorm development.

..Mosier.. 10/15/2021

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