MIL-OSI Translation: Interpretation: Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index in August continued to remain in the expansion range. The non-manufacturing business activity index fell significantly affected by the epidemic

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MIL OSI Translation. Region: Peoples Republic of China-China Statistical Information Network-Chinese-

The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index continued to remain in the expansion range in August The non-manufacturing business activity index fell significantly due to the impact of the epidemic

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——Zhao Qinghe, a senior statistician from the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, interprets the August 2021 China Purchasing Managers Index

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  1. The Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index remains in the expansion range

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  In August, the expansion of the manufacturing industry weakened, and the economy narrowed. Among the 21 industries surveyed, 10 industries have PMIs in the boom range, a decrease of 3 from the previous month. Main features of this month:

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   One is the overall stability of production activities. The production index was 50.9%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the previous month. The index fluctuated little, and the manufacturing production maintained steady expansion. From the perspective of the industry, the production indexes of agricultural and sideline food processing, papermaking and printing, cultural, educational, sports and entertainment products, railway, ship, aerospace equipment and other industries are all in the high-prosperity range of more than 55.0%, and the production growth is accelerating; petroleum, coal and other fuel processing, black The production index of the metal smelting and rolling processing, automobile and other industries was below the critical point, and the production decreased month-on-month.

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   The second is that market demand has weakened. The new orders index was 49.6%, 1.3 percentage points lower than last month, and fell below the threshold. The new order index of high energy-consuming industries dropped significantly this month, which has significantly negatively driven the overall manufacturing industry. Among them, the new order index of petroleum, coal and other fuel processing, chemical fiber and rubber and plastic products has been below the threshold for three consecutive months. Reflects the continued decline in market demand. In addition, some surveyed companies reported that due to factors such as the epidemic and flood conditions, the supply of raw materials and product delivery was not smooth, the production cycle was prolonged, and the number of new orders received decreased. At the same time, market demand in some industries has risen steadily this month. The index of new orders for the food and beverage refined tea, medicine, special equipment and other industries are in the expansion range, and is higher than the level of last month and the same period last year.

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   The third is that the price index has both fallen. The purchase price index and ex-factory price index of major raw materials were 61.3% and 53.4%, respectively, 1.6 and 0.4 percentage points lower than last month, and the difference between the two price indices narrowed for three consecutive months, down from 12.2 percentage points in May. 7.9 percentage points. From the perspective of the purchase price index of major raw materials, the 21 industries surveyed are all above the threshold. Among them, the indexes of petroleum, coal and other fuel processing, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing have dropped significantly, but textiles, chemical raw materials and chemical products, non- Industries such as metal and mineral products are still higher than 65.0%, and the pressure on procurement costs of related companies is still relatively high. In terms of ex-factory price index, the decline of petroleum, coal and other fuel processing, chemical fiber and rubber and plastic products industries all fell by 12.0 percentage points or more, and fell below the threshold for the first time since May.

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  Fourth is that the PMI of large and medium-sized enterprises is located in the expansion zone. The PMIs of large and medium-sized enterprises were 50.3% and 51.2%, respectively, which fell and rose compared with the previous month, and both were at the critical point and above for 6 consecutive months, indicating that the operation of large and medium-sized enterprises is relatively stable. The PMI of small enterprises was 48.2%, which was below the critical point for four consecutive months, indicating that the prosperity level of small enterprises has continued to be low and the pressure on production and operation is relatively high.

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  Fifth, enterprises have stable confidence in market development. The expectation index of production and operation activities is 57.5%, which continues to be in a relatively high business range. Among the 21 industries surveyed, except for the textile industry and ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industries, other industries are above the threshold. In the investigation, some companies reported that as the impact of the epidemic’s flood conditions gradually subsided, production and operations will soon return to normal, and companies remain optimistic about their future development expectations.

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   2. The non-manufacturing business activity index dropped significantly

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   In August, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 47.5%, 5.8 percentage points lower than the previous month, and it was the first time since March 2020 that it fell below the threshold.

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   The construction industry rose to a high level of prosperity. Production activities in the construction industry have accelerated this month, with a business activity index of 60.5%, 3.0 percentage points higher than last month, and it has returned to the high level of prosperity. Among them, the civil engineering and construction industry business activity index was 60.8%, a sharp increase of 6.4 percentage points from the previous month. From the perspective of market demand and employment, both the new order index and the employee index are in the expansion range, indicating that the number of new contracts signed in the construction industry and the number of enterprises’ employment has increased.

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   The service industry’s prosperity level has dropped significantly. This multi-province and multi-point epidemic has brought a greater impact to the service industry that is still in the process of recovery. The service industry business activity index was 45.2%, which was 7.3 percentage points lower than last month, and fell below the threshold for the first time this year. From the perspective of the industry, the epidemic has inhibited the release of demand from the contact-type agglomeration service industry, and the business activity index of road transportation, air transportation, accommodation, catering, leasing and business services, ecological protection and environmental governance, culture, sports and entertainment all fell Below the critical point, the total business volume has decreased significantly; at the same time, the wholesale, postal, telecommunications, broadcasting, television and satellite transmission services, currency and financial services, capital market services and other industries are all higher than 54.0%, and the business volume continues to grow. In terms of market expectations, the business activity expectations index is 57.3%, which is in a relatively high boom range, indicating that as the epidemic is effectively controlled and the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays approaching, companies are more optimistic about the service market recovery in the near future.

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  Three, comprehensivePMI output index fell below the threshold

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   In August, the comprehensive PMI output index was 48.9%, 3.5 percentage points lower than the previous month, indicating that the production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises have slowed down significantly compared with the previous month. The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index that make up the comprehensive PMI output index are 50.9% and 47.5%, respectively.

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EDITOR’S NOTE: This article is a translation. Apologies should the grammar and/or sentence structure not be perfect.

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