Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Jun 23, 2021 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Jun 23 17:56:17 UTC 2021 (Print Version | | )
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
SPC AC 231756
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 2
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 PM CDT Wed Jun 23 2021
Valid 231630Z – 241200Z
…THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA…
…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST….
CORRECTED FOR NDFD THUNDER GRID
Strong to severe storms are expected late this afternoon into
tonight across parts of the central Plains and Upper Midwest.
Damaging winds and large hail should be the main threats.
…NE and vicinity…
Morning water vapor loop shows an upper ridge over the central High
Plains region. Model guidance indicates that midlevel heights will
continue to rise across this area through mid-afternoon, until a
weak shortwave trough over WY/CO tops the ridge and begins to move
into western NE. This will be coincident with peak heating and
scattered thunderstorm development. These storms will likely become
severe by early evening and track across much of NE through the
night. Convection is expected to grow upscale during this period,
with a fast-moving bowing complex capable of damaging winds.
Therefore, have added a small ENH for this threat.
A strong shortwave trough is digging southeastward across
Saskatchewan toward the northern Plains. The associated surface
cold front will sweep into ND/MN this evening, where scattered
thunderstorm development is expected. These storms will track
southeastward across northern MN through the evening, and into
northern WI overnight. Low-level moisture will be slowly recovering
in this region, with the greatest moisture/CAPE values remaining
south of the SLGT risk area. Nevertheless, a few intense cells will
be possible, capable of large hail and damaging winds.
…Southern MT into northeast WY…
Strong heating is occurring today across southern MT into northeast
WY, where dewpoints are in the 40s and afternoon MLCAPE values are
forecast to approach 1000 J/kg. Forecast soundings indicate a
deeply mixed boundary layer, along with relatively strong westerly
flow aloft. This may result in a few thunderstorms capable of
gusty/damaging winds this afternoon and early evening across the
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