MIL-OSI USA: SPC Jun 12, 2021 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

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Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

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Jun 12, 2021 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Click to see valid 1Z – 12Z Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Jun 12 05:59:33 UTC 2021 (Print Version |   |  )
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table

 Forecast Discussion

SPC AC 120559

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Sat Jun 12 2021

Valid 121200Z – 131200Z

…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
SOUTHEAST…

…SUMMARY…
Isolated storms may produce hail or strong wind gusts over northeast
New Mexico, southeast Colorado and the western Texas Panhandle
Saturday afternoon and evening. Isolated damaging wind gusts are
also possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley through the central
to northeast Gulf Coast.

…Synopsis…
Upper-level high pressure will extend over much of the
southern/central Rockies and adjacent southern/central Plains on
Saturday. Within a weak west/northwest flow regime in the mid levels
east of the ridge of high pressure, a convectively enhanced
perturbation will traverse the lower MS Valley while a second
perturbation moves across the Carolinas/GA.

…Northeast NM/southeast CO and western TX Panhandle…
Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop over the higher
terrain aided by increasingly moist low-level upslope flow (60s dew
points) and steep mid-level lapse rates of 8-8.5 Deg C/km. Veering
wind profiles will support adequate effective shear for supercells
despite rather modest mid-level flow, and storms will be capable of
severe hail and locally strong wind gusts. As storms move east
during the evening, merging outflows will contribute to a cluster or
two towards the western TX Panhandle/South Plains. Damaging winds
will be the primary risk, although isolated large hail will also
remain possible.

…Mid/Lower Mississippi Valley east to FL Panhandle/southern GA…
Moderate to strong MLCAPE will once again develop during the
afternoon, in addition to minimal convective inhibition.
Thunderstorms will increase in coverage by afternoon in the vicinity
of a surface trough and as modest ascent develops in association
with the previously mentioned perturbations. Despite generally weak
flow aloft, localized enhancement of the flow associated with both
vorticity maximas will contribute to 20-30 kts of effective shear,
sufficient for organized multicells capable of mainly
strong/isolated damaging gusts.

..Bunting/Moore.. 06/12/2021

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