MIL-OSI USA: SPC Jun 10, 2021 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

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Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

SPC AC 100533

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 AM CDT Thu Jun 10 2021

Valid 111200Z – 121200Z

…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A SMALL
PART OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS…

…SUMMARY…
Isolated severe wind gusts may occur Friday from northeast Kansas
into southwest Iowa.

..Synopsis and Discussion…
A compact, negative-tilt shortwave trough will move quickly out of
the Dakotas and into Manitoba by 21Z with minor height rises across
the Plains. At the surface, a cold front (possibly reinforced with
outflow) may extend roughly over the eastern Dakotas, eastern NE and
western KS Friday morning, with 70s F dewpoints ahead of the NE/KS
portion of the front.

Ongoing storms are likely Friday morning from ND to NE, with
subsidence likely dissipating the northern storms by midday. Farther
south, stronger instability will exist, and with less subsidence.
Therefore, a line or cluster of storms may persist throughout the
day, likely translating southwestward into northeastern KS by late
afternoon. While there will be little large-scale support for ascent
due to the upper ridge, low-level convergence along the
front/outflow boundary and robust boundary-layer theta-e may support
a few severe storms capable of localized wind damage.

Elsewhere, a dryline will exist over west TX, as the cold front
plunges south across the TX Panhandle. Hot temperatures will mix out
CIN near the boundary, and a brief, isolated storm or two is
possible, though the probability of severe appears too low for a
categorical upgrade for gusty winds.

..Jewell.. 06/10/2021

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