MIL OSI Translation. Government of the Republic of France statements from French to English –
Source: Swiss Canton de Vaud – news in French
Posted on June 8, 2021
According to the average scenario, which Statistics Vaud considers to be the most probable, the Vaudois population would cross the milestone of one million inhabitants in 2044 and reach 1,045,000 residents in 2050. This is the first result of the very comprehensive study. and innovative in its methodology presented today by the State Councilor in charge of statistics and the demographers of the Canton. Thus, with an average annual growth rate of + 0.8% between 2020 and 2050, the development of the Vaudois population would be slower than over the past 20 years (+ 1.4% on average). All the scenarios predict a marked acceleration in demographic aging, with the retirement of the generations of the second wave of the baby boom.
Statistics Vaud periodically produces demographic forecasts for planning and decision-making purposes. Published today, the latest study proposes three cantonal scenarios for the period 2021-2050, based on a series of assumptions concerning the evolution of mortality, fertility and migration. These assumptions take into account past trends as well as forward thinking. They are used to feed a new projection model developed last year by the Vaud statisticians. The perspectives that emerge are characterized in particular and in an unprecedented way by the distinction of the results according to the Swiss or foreign origin of the population, and by a regionalization of these same results according to several possible divisions.
The average scenario foresees one million Vaudoises and Vaudois in 2044 and a total demographic growth of + 229,000 people between 2020 and 2050. The migratory balance (excess of arrivals over departures) would explain two-thirds of this increase (+151 ‘000 people) and the remaining third would be due to the natural balance (excess of births over deaths). In the high scenario, the million inhabitants would be crossed by 2038 with an average annual growth rate of + 1.1%, while the population of Vaud would increase less quickly under the low scenario, reaching only 967,000 people in 2050 at an annual rate reduced to + 0.6%.
In all three scenarios, the canton’s foreign population would grow faster in relative terms than the population of Swiss nationality. According to the medium scenario, foreigners would thus drop from 33% of the total population in 2020 to 35% in 2050. In addition, the three scenarios anticipate a net slowdown in the growth of the working population (20-64 year olds). which would be between + 0.3% and + 0.8% annually against + 1.5% over the past 20 years. The share of working people in the population would thus decrease significantly, going from 62% in 2020 to 57% in 2050 in the three scenarios.
The relative decline in the working-age population could be explained in particular by the marked acceleration in demographic aging, under the effect of the transition to retirement by 2035 of the large generations born from 1955 to 1970. The number of seniors in the canton would rapidly increase from 135,000 in 2020 to a workforce of between 229,000 and 248,000 people in 2050. Similarly, their proportion in the population would increase from 16.5% in 2020 to 22% or even 24% in 2050. In particular, people aged 80 and over would more than double in 30 years, going from 38,000 in 2020 to 85,000 or even 93,000 in 2050 depending on the scenarios.
The regionalization now possible of the cantonal scenarios takes into account regional demographic differences as well as the impacts of the cantonal master plan. According to the average scenario, the sub-arrondissement of Romanel and the districts of Broye-Vully, Nyon and Gros-de-Vaud would experience the most significant relative demographic increases, with average annual growth rates of between +1.1 % to + 1.4% over the period 2020-2040. The City of Lausanne would reach 157,000 inhabitants in 2040, with a certain slowdown in growth that would place it below the cantonal average. However, the current downward trend in the proportion of the Vaudois population living in an agglomeration could weaken or even reverse before 2040.
The full report “Demographic prospects for the canton of Vaud” as well as its summary published by Statistics Vaud are available for free download at www.vd.ch/stat-perspectives_demo
Vaud State Information and Communication Office
DFIRE, Pascal Broulis, State Councilor,021 316 20 01
DFIRE, Reto Schumacher, project manager, prospective section and decision support, Statistics Vaud,021 316 29 75
DFIRE, Aurélien Moreau, project manager, prospective section and decision-making support, Statistics Vaud,021 316 29 42
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EDITOR’S NOTE: This article is a translation. Apologies should the grammar and / or sentence structure not be perfect.