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MIL OSI Translation. Region: Germany / Deutschland –

Source: Destatis Federal Statistical Office

Press release No. 536 from December 30, 2020

WIESBADEN – According to preliminary results, at least 84,480 people died in Germany in November 2020. As the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) also reports, that was 11% or 8 186 more people than the average number of deaths in November between 2016 and 2019. This is the result of a special evaluation of the preliminary deaths that is currently available until the end of November. The last time there were more than 80,000 deaths in a November was in 1974 – at that time 81,006 deaths were counted.

The difference to the average increased in the weeks of November

The difference between the number of deaths and the average of previous years has increased over all weeks of November. A total of 20,699 deaths have been reported so far in the last week of November (48th calendar week from November 23 to 29) – that is 14% or 2,525 more than the average for the years 2016 to 2019. The number of deaths of people who had previously been diagnosed with COVID-19, increased from week to week. In the 48th calendar week, there were a total of 2,579 COVID-19 deaths reported to the Robert Koch Institute. That is 639 more than in the previous week.

Increase in deaths, especially in the age group of 80 and over

The above-average number of deaths in November 2020 is almost exclusively due to an increase in deaths in the age group of 80 and over (+8 192 cases or + 19% above the average for 2016 to 2019). The number of deaths among those under 80, on the other hand, is at the level of previous years. According to the RKI figures, deaths from COVID-19 occur more frequently in people over the age of 80.

In the long term, the age structure of the population has also changed in recent years. The number of people aged 80 and over increased from 4.7 million to 5.7 million between 2015 and 2019. In addition to the direct and indirect consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic, such shifts in the age structure of the population can also contribute to above-average death rates. However, measures to contain the pandemic can also ensure that fewer deaths are caused by other infectious diseases such as the flu, which also affects the difference from the average. However, the number of deaths cannot provide any information about the frequency of individual causes of death.

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2020 deaths in Germany by month
Period
Total number2020
Difference to Ø 2016-2019
COVID-19 deaths
Relative difference to …
Ø 2016-2019
2016
2017
2018
2019
number
in %

January
85 376
-1 587

-2
+4
-11
0
0
February
80 003
-3 516

-4
+4
-12
-7
-1
March
87 432
-2 679
1 119
-3
+4
+5
-18
+1
April
83 825
+7 458
6 048
+10
+11
+15
+5
+8
May
75 742
+611
1 565
+1
+2
0
+1
0
June
72 107
+1 697
302
+2
+4
+4
+4
-2
July
73 711
-305
132
0
+2
+3
-3
-4
August
78 569
+4 920
147
+7
+10
+10
0
+7
September
73 888
+4 099
202
+6
+7
+6
+6
+4
October
79 207
+3 638
1 407
+5
+4
+5
+7
+3
November
84 480
+8 186
7 335
+11
+10
+13
+13
+8
January to November
874 340
+22 520
18 257
+3
+6
+3
0
+2

Deaths in Saxony in November 39% above the average

The development of the number of deaths in Saxony is particularly striking. The difference to the average of the four previous years increased markedly from week to week in November and is 39% or 1,708 cases over the month as a whole. For the last week of November (48th calendar week), 55% or 586 more cases have been reported in Saxony than the previous year’s average. In the other federal states, the number of deaths in November as a whole was a maximum of 14% above the average for the years 2016 to 2019 (+354 cases in Brandenburg).

Clear findings on excess mortality in other European countries

The EuroMOMO network for the observation of mortality developments, reports currently for the last week of November (48th calendar week) an extraordinarily high excess mortality (“extraordinary high excess”) for Switzerland and Slovenia. Very high or high excess mortality (“very high excess” or “high excess”) is reported for Belgium, Greece, Italy and Austria. In other European countries, EuroMOMO determines a maximum of a “moderate excess” excess mortality for this calendar week.

Methodological notes on the death rate for Germany:

Own evaluations of the annual course of the death rate are based on the special evaluation “Deaths – number of cases by days, weeks, months, age groups, gender and federal states for Germany from 2016 to 2020“Possible. The first preliminary data are presented for 2020. The provisional data is a pure case count of the death reports received from the registry offices without the usual plausibility check and completeness check of the data.

Legal regulations on reporting deaths to the registry office and differences in reporting behavior of the registry offices to official statistics mean that current statements on the number of deaths can be made with a delay of around four weeks. Due to the delayed reports, the results available for 2020 will increase slightly.

Phases of excess mortality can be identified on the basis of the preliminary number of deaths. For a final classification of the mortality development for a year, the deaths are set in relation to the population, for example, in order to adequately include the aging process of the population. The final results required for this will not be available until mid-2021.

The provisional deaths relate to the day of death, not to the reporting date. Since the reported COVID-19 deaths are also published by the RKI after the day of death with a delay of four weeks, a temporal comparison with the provisional total deaths is possible.

Further information:

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MIL OSI

EDITOR’S NOTE: This article is a translation. Apologies should the grammar and / or sentence structure not be perfect.

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