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Source: United Kingdom – Science Media Centre

The MRC Biostatistics Unit at the University of Cambridge have released their latest nowcast and forecast of COVID-19.

Prof Sheila Bird, Formerly Programme Leader, MRC Biostatistics Unit, University of Cambridge, said:

“The MRC-Biostatistics Unit/PHE team estimated the daily number of new SARS-CoV-2 infections in England on 25 November as 52,000 (95% credible interval: 39,000 to 68,000) whereas ONS Infection Survey’s Bayesian-modelled and weighted estimate for daily incidence during 22-28 November was substantially lower at 26,000 (95% Bayesian interval: 22,000 to 29,000) and apparently more precise.  Lower estimated incidence from ONS Infection Survey is to be expected because its sampling is household-based; and so excludes institutions.  The ONS infection Survey’s low volunteer rate may contribute to over-stated precision.  But the extent of under-estimation by ONS infection Survey is brought sharply into focus by today’s two reports.”

https://www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/nowcasting-and-forecasting-11th-december-2020/

All our previous output on this subject can be seen at this weblink:

www.sciencemediacentre.org/tag/covid-19

Declared interests

Prof Sheila Bird: “SMB was formerly a Programme leader at MRC Biostatistics Unit.”

MIL OSI United Kingdom