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MIL OSI Translation. Region: Germany / Deutschland –

Source: Destatis Federal Statistical Office

The decline in mobility in the population continues in the second week since the partial lockdown began on November 2, 2020

Press release No. 459 from November 18, 2020

WIESBADEN – In the second week after the partial lockdown came into force to contain the corona pandemic, the average mobility in Germany fell by a further 2.6% compared to the previous week (46th calendar week 2020 compared to the 45th calendar week). As a special evaluation of experimental data by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) shows, mobility in the two weeks from November 2nd to 15th, 2020 was on average 8.8% below the previous year’s level.

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Mobility in Brandenburg and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania runs counter to the national trend

In 14 of 16 federal states, the movements decreased compared to the previous year during this period. The decline in mobility was greatest in the city-states of Berlin and Hamburg, with a good fifth fewer movements than in the previous year (-21% each). Contrary to the national trend, mobility increased in Brandenburg (12%) and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania (8%).

Course of mobility and 7-day incidence using the example of Berchtesgadener Land

Mobility can be an indicator of the number of social contacts. A decline in mobility in the population should therefore be accompanied by a decrease in social contacts and thus the risk of contracting Covid-19. Assuming that a decrease in mobility with a time lag of 21 days leads to a decrease in the 7-day incidence, the mobility before 21 days and the current incidence should be uniform. The estimated time delay is in turn based on the assumption that around 21 days elapse between being infected with the coronavirus and including a person who tested positive for the virus in the 7-day incidence.

The example of the Berchtesgadener Land shows that there can be this connection: A hard local lockdown came into effect on October 20, 2020, and mobility subsequently fell to an all-time low within a few days. Mobility in the district decreased by a good third (-35%) from October 20 to October 27. This decrease in mobility was accompanied by a significant decrease in the incidence values ​​around three weeks later. These fell from 236 cases per 100,000 inhabitants in the last 7 days on October 20 to 143 cases on November 10.

On a national average, mobility has declined comparatively slightly since the partial lockdown came into force. The 7-day incidence continues to rise, but less than before November 2, 2020 – the incidence curve flattens out. The coming weeks will show whether the uniform course of changes in mobility and the incidence value observed in Berchtesgadener Land will also be visible on a nationwide scale with previously less harsh lockdown measures.

>>> Interactive mobility change at district level in hotspots and non-hotspots

An interactive map in the area “EXDAT – experimental data“On the website of the Federal Statistical Office. The offer is updated weekly and gradually expanded.

Methodological notes:

The results are based on a special evaluation of anonymized and aggregated mobile phone data, which the Federal Statistical Office is examining in particular with regard to its usefulness for the small-scale and current mapping of the population and their mobility (www.destatis.de/exdat).

Cellular data can provide an indication of how much the mobility behavior of citizens in so-called Corona hotspots changes after the entry into force of restriction measures to contain the Covid 19 pandemic. This is based on the assumption that with a decrease in mobility, the number of social interactions and thus the risk of infection also decrease.

These experimental data are new, innovative project results that are created on the basis of new data sources and methods; they differ in their degree of maturity and quality from official statistics, especially with regard to harmonization, coverage and methodology.

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EDITOR’S NOTE: This article is a translation. Apologies should the grammar and / or sentence structure not be perfect.

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