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MIL OSI Translation. Region: Germany / Deutschland –

Source: Destatis Federal Statistical Office

Inflation rate slightly in the red for the third time in 2020

Press release No. 448 from November 12, 2020

Consumer price index, October 2020 – 0.2% on the same month last year (preliminary result confirmed) + 0.1% on the previous month (preliminary result confirmed)

Harmonized index of consumer prices, October 2020 – 0.5% on the same month last year (preliminary result confirmed) 0.0% on the previous month (preliminary result confirmed)

WIESBADEN – The inflation rate in Germany – measured as the change in the consumer price index (CPI) compared to the same month of the previous year – was -0.2% in October 2020. The inflation rate was thus slightly negative for the third time this year (July 2020: -0.1%, September: -0.2%). A lower rate was last observed in January 2015 at -0.3%. As the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) also reports, consumer prices rose slightly by 0.1% compared to September 2020.

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Lower VAT rates on July 1, 2020 will continue to dampen price developments

One reason for the negative inflation rate was still the temporary one Lowering VAT rateswhich was implemented as a measure of the federal government’s economic stimulus package on July 1, 2020 and has since had a dampening effect on consumer prices compared to the previous year.

Goods were 1.5% cheaper within a year due to lower energy prices

Overall, goods were cheaper by 1.5% from October 2019 to October 2020. The main reason for this is the drop in prices at Energy products (-6.8%). Compared with the previous year, prices for heating oil (-37.2%) and fuels (-10.7%) in particular fell. By contrast, food prices rose by 1.4% over the year. Meat and meat products (+4.1%) and fruit (+3.8%) were more expensive, while edible fats and oils were particularly cheaper (-3.5%). Tobacco products were also significantly more expensive (+ 5.4%). Certain consumer goods such as telephones (-6.7%), information processing devices (-5.3%) and entertainment electronics (-5.0%) were also significantly cheaper.

Inflation rate excluding energy products + 0.6%

The significant price drops for energy products compared to the same month last year had a dampening effect on the inflation rate: Without taking into account the prices for energy products, the inflation rate in October 2020 at + 0.6%.

Services rose by 1.0% within a year

The prices for services as a whole increased by 1.0% in October 2020 compared to the same month of the previous year. The increase in net rents (+1.4%) was significant for this price development, as private households spend a large part of their consumer spending on it. In addition, some prices for services of lesser importance rose even more: For example, the prices for savings banks and bank fees (+6.4%), home care services (+6.6%) or the fee for gambling (+13 , 7%). The latter results in particular from the higher prices for the “6 out of 49” lottery. On the other hand, long-distance tickets became considerably cheaper (-17.1%), mainly due to the lower value added tax for long-distance rail journeys from 19% to 7% since the beginning of the year.

Rising prices for heating oil and vegetables compared to the previous month

Compared to September 2020, the consumer price index rose only slightly by 0.1% in October 2020. Among the energy products, consumers had to pay more for heating oil in particular (+ 3.2%) after heating oil prices had fallen by 6.9% in September 2020 compared to the previous month. In terms of food (+0.4%), vegetables in particular became more expensive (+3.1%) within a month in October 2020. On the other hand, the higher subsidies from health insurances for dentures led to falling prices for dental services for those with statutory health insurance (-5.0%).

Inflation rate in the euro area expected to be -0.3%

The harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) for Germany, which is calculated for international comparison, was 0.5% below the level of October 2019 in October 2020. According to Eurostat’s flash estimate of October 30, 2020, the inflation rate in the euro area was -0.3% . Next The publication date for the HICP is November 18, 2020. The HICP results for all European countries can be found on the Eurostat pages.

Methodological notes:

The inflation rate has been influenced by the passing on of the VAT cut since July 2020. This can have an overall effect on the price change compared to the same month last year and differently on the individual groups of goods. Please refer Press release No. 215 from June 15, 2020 respectively No. 305 of August 13, 2020. However, it is difficult to measure the extent to which the lower tax rates were passed on to consumers, since many other factors also influence price developments. The temporary reduction in VAT rates also poses particular challenges for consumer price statistics, especially due to the different handling in the individual shops. When interpreting the results for September 2020, it should be taken into account that the effects can no longer be read directly in a month-on-month comparison.

Due to the renewed measures to restrict the Corona Pademie since November 2, 2020, there are increased failures in the monthly price collection. The October results are not yet affected. For more information on the procedures during the Corona crisis and their effects on price collection, see our Method paper.

Crisis monitor enables comparison between corona crisis and financial and economic crisis

The consumer price index is also part of the “Crisis monitor“, With which the Federal Statistical Office compares the development of important economic indicators in the Corona crisis and in the financial and economic crisis of 2008/2009. The crisis monitor supplements the special page Corona statistics, which bundles statistical information on the economic and social consequences of the corona pandemic.

German EU Council Presidency in the field of statistics

Since July 1, the Federal Statistical Office has been in charge of the EU Council Presidency, chaired by President Dr. Georg Thiel the Council Working Group on Statistics. We provide information about our activities during the EU Council Presidency on the special page www.destatis.de/eu2020.

You can find European statistics in our data offer “Europe in numbers“.

Consumer price index for Germany October 2020
Overall index / sub-index
weighting
Index2015 = 100
Change compared to the month of the previous year
Change from previous month
in ‰
in %
The results are verified without allocations. () Informational value limited, as the numerical value is statistically relatively uncertain due to increased imputation rates (over 50%).
Overall index
1,000.00
105.9
-0.2
0.1
Food and non-alcoholic beverages
96.85
108.5
1.3
0.4
food
84.87
109.2
1.4
0.4
Meat and meat products
18.60
113.8
4.1
0.2
fruit
8.88
113.4
3.8
0.0
vegetables
11.08
106.3
1.5
3.1
Alcoholic beverages and tobacco products
37.77
114.5
2.4
-0.1
Clothing and shoes
45.34
104.7
-1.8
1.6
Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels
324.70
105.3
-0.1
0.1
Net rent
196.32
107.5
1.4
0.2
Electricity, gas and other fuels (household energy)
68.82
97.7
-4.9
0.0
electricity
25.92
109.3
1.9
0.0
natural gas 1
13.53
95.1
-1.5
0.0
Light heating oil 1
7.01
72.0
-37.2
3.2
Furniture, lights, appliances and other household accessories
50.04
102.2
-0.8
0.1
health
46.13
104.4
-0.3
-0.7
traffic
129.05
103.7
-2.6
0.1
Fuels
35.01
92.5
-10.7
0.5
Premium gasoline
25.66
92.8
-8.9
0.7
Diesel fuel
8.64
91.4
-16.1
0.0
Post and Telecommunications
26.72
92.9
-3.0
-0.1
Leisure, entertainment and culture
113.36
106.9
0.0
0.0
Package tours
26.62
(109.5)
(-6.0)
(-3.7)
Education
9.02
102.7
0.4
0.0
Catering and accommodation services
46.77
112.2
1.8
0.0
Other goods and services
74.25
108.1
1.1
0.1
Overall index
without food and energy
811.30
106.8
0.5
0.1
without energy (household energy and fuels)
896.17
107.0
0.6
0.1
without heating oil and fuels
957.98
106.6
0.5
0.1
Were
468.16
103.5
-1.5
0.3
Consumer goods
297.54
104.3
-1.6
0.2
energy
103.83
96.0
-6.8
0.2
Services
531.84
108.0
1.0
0.0

Further information on consumer price statistics is available from Fachserie 17, Reihe 7 “Consumer price indices for Germany”And the monthly online report“ Harmonized Indices of Consumer Prices ”. Detailed data on consumer price statistics can be found in the tables Consumer price index (61111-0004) and (61111-0006) as Harmonized index of consumer prices (61121-0002) and (61121-0004) can be called up in the GENESIS-Online database.

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MIL OSI

EDITOR’S NOTE: This article is a translation. Apologies should the grammar and / or sentence structure not be perfect.

MIL Translation OSI