Source: Central Bank of the Russian Federation in English
11 November 2020
In October, annual inflation reached 4.0%. This was because monthly price growth sped up, driven by temporary proinflationary factors, and decreased price growth rates recorded in late 2019 were excluded from the inflation calculation.
Seasonally adjusted month-on-month price growth remains volatile due to the simultaneous effects of competing factors, including both one-off and longer-lasting ones. The acceleration of monthly price growth in October was caused by shrinking supply in a number of food categories, increased global food prices, and the pass-through of the ruble’s weakening in Q3 to price dynamics. Nonetheless, inflationary pressure adjusted for temporary and one-off factors stays close to 4.0%.
Up-to-date figures generally evidence a slowdown of economic revival at the beginning of Q4 compared to Q3. This is associated with the uneven recovery in various industries and the emergence of new adverse factors. Self-restrictions tightened amid the resurgence of coronavirus cases, which retarded the production of consumer services. Growth in intermediate goods and export industries also slowed down. The ongoing aggravation of the epidemiological situation will amplify demand-side disinflationary pressure. Accommodative monetary policy will limit medium-term disinflationary risks, thus helping maintain inflation in the range of 3.5–4.0% in 2021.