Source: United Kingdom – Science Media Centre
The government have released the latest statistics from the COVID-19 Test and Trace system.
Prof James Naismith FRS FRSE FMedSci, Director of the Rosalind Franklin Institute, and University of Oxford, said:
“Until we have the ONS data tomorrow that cover last week, a definitive assessment on the efficiency of the system for last week is not possible. Based on what I see in this release I would not expect to change my previous assessment that system is not meaningfully impacting upon the disease.
“I note that the positivity rate in pillar 2 has gone above 10 %. Pillar 2 is testing the wider community. At above 5 % positivity, then daily test numbers run an increasing risk of underestimating the growth of the virus. This is well understood by scientists. It is notable that ONS (covering two weeks ago) and Nowcast (from Nov 3rd) data show a faster rate of spread of virus than the daily testing numbers do. I would strongly advise caution on solely relying on daily test numbers as a means to estimate the speed of the spread of the virus. It should be noted that the ZOE KCL model has shown show a stabilisation, ZOE is a new method, which does not mean that its wrong, just that it is less well tried and tested than the ONS methodology. Should ZOE be accurate then this would be very welcome news.
“I have no idea why, given the positivity in pillar 2, we are operating pillar 2 so far below the Government’s measure of capacity.”
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