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MIL OSI Translation. Region: Germany / Deutschland –

Source: Destatis Federal Statistical Office

Lowest inflation rate since 2015

Press release 402 from October 13, 2020

Consumer price index, September 2020 – 0.2% on the same month last year (preliminary result confirmed) -0.2% on the previous month (preliminary result confirmed)

Harmonized index of consumer prices, September 2020 – 0.4% on the same month last year (provisional result confirmed) -0.4% on the previous month (provisional result confirmed)

WIESBADEN – The inflation rate in Germany – measured as the change in the consumer price index (CPI) compared to the same month last year – was -0.2% in September 2020. With that the inflation rate below zero for the second time this year (July 2020: -0.1%). A lower rate was last observed in January 2015 at -0.3%. As the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) also reports, consumer prices also fell by 0.2% compared to August 2020.

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Lower VAT rates on July 1, 2020 will continue to dampen price developments

One reason for the low inflation rate is still the temporary reduction in VAT, which was implemented as a measure of the federal government’s stimulus package on July 1, 2020 and has since had a dampening effect on consumer prices compared to the previous year.

Goods were 1.7% cheaper within a year, the price drop for energy products intensified

Overall, goods were 1.7% cheaper from September 2019 to September 2020. The main reasons for this are the price drops at Energy products (-7.1%), which have increased again (August 2020: -6.3%). Compared to the previous year, prices for heating oil (-39.6%) and fuels (-11.4%) in particular fell. By contrast, food prices rose by 0.6% within the year. In September 2020, compared to the same month last year, fruit (+4.3%) and meat and meat products (+4.1%) were more expensive, while vegetables in particular were cheaper (-5.2%). Tobacco products were also significantly more expensive (+ 5.7%). Certain consumer goods such as telephones (-6.1%), consumer electronics (-4.4%) and information processing devices (-3.7%) as well as clothing (-2.8%) were also cheaper.

Inflation rate excluding energy products with +0.6% above total inflation

The significant price drops for energy products compared to the same month last year had a dampening effect on the inflation rate from: Without taking into account the prices for energy products, the inflation rate in September 2020 would have been + 0.6%.

Services rose by 1.0% within a year

The prices for services as a whole increased by 1.0% in September 2020 compared to the same month of the previous year. The increase in net rents (+1.4%) was significant for this price development, as private households spend a large part of their consumer spending on it. For hairdressing and body care services (+ 4.8%) and for visits to restaurants, cafes and street sales (+ 2.1%), higher prices had to be paid despite the reduction in VAT. The prices for financial services (+5.2%) and for services provided by social institutions (+5.6%), especially home care services (+6.8%), rose even more sharply. In contrast, long-distance tickets became considerably cheaper (-17.6%). This is mainly due to the lower value added tax for long-distance rail journeys from 19% to 7% since the beginning of the year and only to a small extent to the temporary lowering of the reduced tax rate from 7% to 5%.

Falling heating oil prices, but rising prices for clothing compared to the previous month

Compared to August 2020, the consumer price index fell by a total of 0.2% in September 2020. Due to the season, at the end of the summer holidays, there were, among other things, price drops for overnight stays (-1.6%). In addition, the prices for energy products fell by 0.7%, in particular consumers had to pay less for heating oil (-6.9%). The prices for food as a whole fell slightly compared to the previous month (-0.3%). In contrast, prices for both clothing (+5.6%) and shoes (+3.6%) rose significantly. The switch to the autumn / winter collection had an impact here.

Inflation rate in the euro area expected to be -0.3%

The harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) for Germany, calculated for international comparison, was 0.4% below the level of September 2019 in September 2020. According to Eurostat’s flash estimate of October 2, 2020, the inflation rate in the euro area was -0.3% . Next The publication date for the HICP is October 16, 2020. The HICP results for all European countries can be found on the Eurostat pages.

Methodological notes:

The inflation rate has been influenced by the passing on of the VAT cut since July 2020. This can have an overall effect on the price change compared to the same month of the previous year and differently on the individual goods groups. Please refer Press release No. 215 from June 15, 2020 respectively No. 305 of August 13, 2020. However, it is difficult to measure the extent to which the lower tax rates were passed on to consumers, since many other factors also influence price developments. The temporary reduction in VAT rates also poses particular challenges for consumer price statistics, especially due to the different handling in the individual shops. When interpreting the results for September 2020, it must be taken into account that the effects can no longer be read directly from the previous month.

You can find more information on the procedures during the Corona crisis and their effects on price collection in our Method paper.

Crisis monitor enables comparison between the corona crisis and the financial and economic crisis

The consumer price index is also part of the “Crisis monitor“, With which the Federal Statistical Office compares the development of important economic indicators in the Corona crisis and in the financial and economic crisis of 2008/2009. The crisis monitor supplements the special page Corona statistics, which has been bundling statistical information on the economic and social consequences of the corona pandemic since the beginning of April.

German EU Council Presidency in the field of statistics

Since July 1, the Federal Statistical Office has been in charge of the EU Council Presidency, chaired by President Dr. Georg Thiel the Council Working Group on Statistics. About our Activities in the context of the EU Council Presidency we inform on the special page www.destatis.de/eu2020.

You can find European statistics in our data “Europe in numbers“.

Consumer price index for Germany September 2020
Overall index / sub-index
weighting
Index2015 = 100
Change compared to the month of the previous year
Change from previous month
in ‰
in %
The results are verified without allocations. () Informational value limited, as the numerical value is statistically relatively uncertain due to increased imputation rates (over 50%)
Overall index
1,000.00
105.8
-0.2
-0.2
Food and non-alcoholic beverages
96.85
108.1
0.6
-0.3
food
84.87
108.8
0.6
-0.3
Meat and meat products
18.60
113.6
4.1
-0.4
fruit
8.88
113.4
4.3
0.4
vegetables
11.08
103.1
-5.2
-0.9
Alcoholic beverages and tobacco products
37.77
114.6
2.8
0.1
Clothing and shoes
45.34
103.1
-2.1
5.0
Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels
324.70
105.2
0.0
-0.1
Net rent
196.32
107.3
1.4
0.1
Electricity, gas and other fuels (household energy)
68.82
97.7
-4.9
-0.7
electricity
25.92
109.3
1.9
-0.1
natural gas 1
13.53
95.1
-1.0
-0.2
Light heating oil 1
7.01
69.8
-39.6
-6.9
Furniture, lights, appliances and other household accessories
50.04
102.1
-0.6
0.1
health
46.13
105.1
0.5
-0.1
traffic
129.05
103.6
-2.7
-0.5
Fuels
35.01
92.0
-11.4
-0.9
Premium gasoline
25.66
92.2
-10.0
-0.1
Diesel fuel
8.64
91.4
-15.4
-2.9
Post and Telecommunications
26.72
93.0
-2.9
-0.1
Leisure, entertainment and culture
113.36
106.9
-0.5
-2.6
Package tours
26.62
(113.7)
(-4.4)
(-10.9)
Education
9.02
102.7
0.4
1.2
Catering and accommodation services
46.77
112.2
1.8
-0.2
Other goods and services
74.25
108.0
1.5
0.0
Overall index
without food and energy
811.30
106.7
0.5
-0.2
without energy (household energy and fuels)
896.17
106.9
0.6
-0.2
without heating oil and fuels
957.98
106.5
0.5
-0.2
Were
468.16
103.2
-1.7
0.3
Consumer goods
297.54
104.1
-1.9
-0.3
energy
103.83
95.8
-7.1
-0.7
Services
531.84
108.0
1.0
-0.6

Further information on consumer price statistics is available from Fachserie 17, Reihe 7 “Consumer price indices for Germany”And the monthly online report“ Harmonized Indices of Consumer Prices ”. Detailed data on consumer price statistics can be found in the tables Consumer price index (61111-0004) and (61111-0006) as Harmonized index of consumer prices (61121-0002) and (61121-0004) can be called up in the GENESIS-Online database.

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MIL OSI

EDITOR’S NOTE: This article is a translation. Apologies should the grammar and / or sentence structure not be perfect.

MIL Translation OSI