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Oct 11, 2020 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Oct 11 00:35:45 UTC 2020 (Print Version |   |  )
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table

 Forecast Discussion

SPC AC 110035

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0735 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020

Valid 110100Z – 111200Z

…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE GULF STATES AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND…

…SUMMARY…
Some tornado threat continues this evening across parts of Alabama,
Georgia, and northwestern South Carolina. Damaging thunderstorm
winds will linger this evening across parts of northern New England.

…01z Update…

Remnants of TC Delta are lifting northeast across the mid-South
region where latest satellite imagery suggests this system is
becoming increasingly extra tropical. Substantial mid-level
drying/subsidence is spreading ahead of the main low across AL into
western GA. The primary threat for deep/robust convection/lightning
remains ahead of this drying. Have adjusted tornado probabilities
downstream a bit across northern GA into northwest SC where a
well-defined surface boundary is currently draped. This wind shift
may provide the focus for additional supercell development and
possibly a few weak tornadoes.

Farther north across New England, strong mid-level forcing is
spreading across northern New England this evening. Despite weak
buoyancy across ME, recent radar data suggests some convective
organization. Greatest severe threat appears to be over the next few
hours with convection that is spreading east from central NH into
southwest ME. Gusty winds are the main concern.

..Darrow.. 10/11/2020

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