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Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Oct 10, 2020
Updated: Sat Oct 10 08:17:02 UTC 2020

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D4
Tue, Oct 13, 2020 – Wed, Oct 14, 2020
D7
Fri, Oct 16, 2020 – Sat, Oct 17, 2020
D5
Wed, Oct 14, 2020 – Thu, Oct 15, 2020
D8
Sat, Oct 17, 2020 – Sun, Oct 18, 2020
D6
Thu, Oct 15, 2020 – Fri, Oct 16, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC – 12 UTC the following day)

Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.

 Forecast Discussion

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 100815
SPC AC 100815

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0315 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020

Valid 131200Z – 181200Z

…DISCUSSION…
A strong mid-level westerly jet is forecast to remain confined to
parts of the northern/central CONUS through at least the middle of
next week. Greater low-level moisture will likely remain displaced
farther south, with minimal severe potential evident across the
CONUS through Day 6/Thursday. Large-scale upper trough amplification
appears possible across parts of the central/eastern CONUS by late
next week, but model differences regarding the evolution of this
upper trough are substantial. If a slower, more amplified upper
trough were to develop as some guidance suggests, then an organized
severe risk could materialize across some portion of the eastern
states around Day 7/Friday into Day 8/Saturday. However,
predictability remains far too low to include any severe
probabilities at this extended time frame.

..Gleason.. 10/10/2020

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