Post sponsored by NewzEngine.com

MIL OSI Translation. Region: Germany / Deutschland –

Source: Destatis Federal Statistical Office

Press release No. 399 from October 9, 2020

WIESBADEN – According to preliminary results, at least 77,886 people died in Germany in August 2020. As the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) also reports, this is 6% or 4,237 more cases than the average for the years 2016 to 2019.

Number of deaths increased in the wake of the heat wave

The increased deaths in August are temporally related to the heat wave that month: According to the German weather service August 2020 was extremely warm. The number of deaths was particularly in the 33rd calendar week (10 to 16 August) with 19 499 cases (+20% or +3 192 cases) above the average of the four previous years. In 2018 and 2019, the effects of the heat waves became apparent somewhat earlier in the course of the year than this year. In 2016 and 2017, there was no such clearly pronounced peak in the number of deaths in the summer months as in the years 2018 to 2020.

KW {point.key}“},”caption”:{“text”:”Quellen: Sterbefallzahlen insgesamt: Statistisches Bundesamt, COVID-19-Todesfälle: Robert Koch-Institut”,”margin”:5},”exporting”:{“filename”: “woechentliche_sterbefallzahlen”, “chartOptions”: {“plotOptions”:{“series”: {“label”:{“enabled”: true}}}}},”plotOptions”:{“series”: {“label”: {“enabled”: true,”onArea”: false}}},”legend”:{“enabled”: false},”title”:{“text”: “Wöchentliche Sterbefallzahlen in Deutschland”},”subtitle”:{“text”:””},”chart”:{“type”: “line”, “zoomType”: “xy”,”spacingTop”: 5},”rchart”:{“type”: “line”, “zoomType”: “x”},”series”:[{“color”: “#006298″,”zIndex”: 1,”lineWidth”:1}, {“color”: “#90d2fc”,”type”: “arearange”,”linkedTo”: “:previous”,”lineWidth”: 0,”zIndex”: 0}, {“color”: “#ec4a60″,”zIndex”: 1,”lineWidth”: 2}, {“color”: “#ec4a60″,”marker”:{“enabled”: true,”radius”: 2},”lineWidth”: 2}],”xAxis”:{“crosshair”: {“width”: 1, “color”: “#d3d3d3″},”tickLength”: 10, “tickWidth”: 1, “minTickInterval”: 1, “minorTickInterval”: 1, “minorTickWidth”: 1, “minorTickLength”: 5,”minorGridLineWidth”:0,”minPadding”: 0.03,”maxPadding”: 0,”title”: {“text”: “Kalenderwoche”, “enabled”: true}},”yAxis”:{“labels”: {“align”: “right”, “reserveSpace”: true, “format”: “{value: ,3f}”}, “tickInterval”: 5000, “min”: 0, “tickLength”: 0, “tickWidth”: 0, “title”: {“text”: “Anzahl”, “enabled”: false}, “opposite”: true}}, “dataOptions”:null}” data-chart-series-names=”[“2016 – 2019 (Durchschnitt)”, “2016 – 2019 (Bandbreite min./max.)”,””,”2020″, “2020 (davon COVID-19)”]”>Cannot load diagram

Increase in August 2020 apparently not due to COVID-19 deaths

However, the data on confirmed COVID-19 deaths that are reported to the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) cannot explain the above-average number of deaths in August. According to the RKI, 135 people died in August who had previously been laboratory-confirmed with COVID-19. In April 2020, when the total death rate was 10% (+7,342 cases) above the average for previous years, there were 6,034 COVID-19 deaths, so there was an obvious link to the increase. The total number of deaths from May to July was in the range of the average for previous years.

2020 deaths in Germany by month

Total number
Difference to
COVID-19
Relative difference to …
2020
Ø 2016-2019
Deaths
Ø 2016-2019
2016
2017
2018
2019
Sources: Total number of deaths: Federal Statistical Office, COVID-19 deaths: Robert Koch Institute (as of October 8)
January
85 306
-1,657

-2%
+ 4%
-11%
0%
0%
February
79 883
-3 636

-4%
+ 4%
-12%
-7%
-1 %
March
87 337
-2,774
1 118
-3%
+ 4%
+ 5%
-18%
+1%
April
83 709
+7 342
6 034
+ 10%
+ 11%
+ 14%
+ 5%
+ 8%
May
75 621
+490
1 549
+1%
+1%
0%
+1%
0%
June
71 913
+1 503
298
+ 2%
+ 4%
+ 3%
+ 4%
-2%
July
73 416
-600
125
-1 %
+ 2%
+ 3%
-3%
-5%
August
77 886
+4 237
135
+ 6%
+ 9%
+ 9%
-1 %
+ 6%
January to August
635 071
+4 904
9 259
+1%
+ 5%
+1%
-3%
+1%

Methodological notes

The effects of the development to date on the entire 2020 calendar year cannot yet be estimated. For a final classification of temporary excess mortality, the entire course of the year must be considered. In addition, the number of deaths must be set in relation to the population, for example to adequately include the aging process of the population.

Own evaluations of the annual course of deaths are based on the special evaluation “Deaths – number of cases by days, weeks, months, age groups and federal states for Germany 2016 to 2020” possible. The first preliminary data are presented for 2020. The provisional data is a pure case count of the death reports received from the registry offices without the usual plausibility check and completeness check of the data.

Legal regulations for reporting deaths to the registry office and differences in the reporting behavior of registry offices to official statistics mean that current statements on the number of deaths can be made with a delay of around four weeks. The results available for 2020 will increase slightly due to the delayed reports.

The provisional deaths relate to the day of death, not to the reporting date. Since the reported COVID-19 deaths are also published by the RKI after the date of death, a temporal comparison with the provisional total deaths is possible.

Further information on the special analysis of the exact number of deaths can be found on the topic page “Deaths and Life Expectancy” as well as the Special page “Corona statistics” of the Federal Statistical Office.

Contact for more information

MIL OSI

EDITOR’S NOTE: This article is a translation. Apologies should the grammar and / or sentence structure not be perfect.

MIL Translation OSI