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Source: US Energy Information Administration

In its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that third-quarter 2020 global liquid fuels consumption averaged 94.2 million barrels per day (b/d), an increase from the second quarter but significantly lower than the same time last year. The slow recovery has contributed to low gasoline and diesel crack spreads and high petroleum product stocks in three major petroleum product trading and refining centers-the U.S. Gulf Coast, the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) region, and Singapore. Between April and September, the five-day moving average crack spread for each product in all regions, except for U.S. Gulf Coast gasoline, declined to their lowest levels since at least 2011 (Figure 1). September crack spreads remained significantly lower than their previous five-year (2015-19) averages. EIA has reduced its forecast for 2021 global consumption of petroleum and other liquids as a result of lowered expectations for economic growth in both 2020 and 2021, leading to a balanced global inventory outlook in 2021. …