MIL OSI Translation. Region: Germany / Germany –
Source: Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft, given the great public importance of the objective facts of the situation to the infection have resolved our research organisations (Fraunhofer society, Helmholtz Association, Leibniz-Gemeinschaft, Max-Planck-society), to take together to the data position to happen. Scientists from the organizations, the diseases with the mathematical analysis of the spread of the COVID-19-and the prediction of the further development of deal with, have worn their results together, a joint analysis of the Situation written and possible coping strategies from the point of view of the modeling submitted. More detailed information can be found in the common opinion of the scientists in the Annex to this document, the most important statements are summarized in the Following short:
Different and independent models of different groups to the spread of SARS-CoV-2 to come to consistent results. The reproduction number R was since the end of March, slightly below 1.The clear decline in new infections N that we observe currently, the joint effect of all in March, measures introduced and the changes of Behaviour of the population.The Situation is not stable, even a small increase in the reproduction number would lead us back into a Phase of exponential growth. Therefore, the reproductive number must be kept up to the availability of a vaccine under 1. The 28.04.2020 the RKI has reported new R-value close to 1 shows that, in this Phase continue to consistent contact restrictions are necessary.The value of R in response to a change in the measure can only be used with a delay of 2 to 3 weeks estimated.To Achieve a “herd immunity” would require, according to the available data a period of a few years, when the health system is not overloaded. Restrictive measures would have to be obtained in such a strategy over the entire period of time.From the point of view of modeling, the following two-phase strategy is sensible: In the first Phase of the new infections to be reduced, until an effective contact tracing is possible. In the second Phase, an adaptive strategy based on closes lower Numbers of new infections.
To do this, the following measures are required:the establishment or continuation of hygienic measures, expansion of Testing and Tracing capacity-adaptive control of accompanying contact-limiting measures.
In the case of political decisions on the further course of action of course other factors to consider, such as psychological and other health problems of the population, economic development, and international networking, to name just a few. The outlined above and in the detailed opinion of the scientists in more detail, the illustrated relationships apply regardless of such factors, so that all decisions have to be made against this Background. New circumstances, such as the availability of a drug or a vaccine, more effective Contact Tracing through an App, nationwide Test, specific antibody Tests, or otherwise would allow, in an adaptive scenario, the Adjustments limiting contact of measures.The relevant research institutions and experts of the participating organizations have dedicated to your activities early in the investigation of the Coronavirus from different disciplinary perspectives and, in particular, the authors of this opinion are, of course, continue to work on the modeling and its data basis in order to improve the prediction of the spread and to support the development of measures to combat the pandemic.
The full paper “Adaptive strategies to mitigate the COVID-19-epidemic” can be found here.
EDITOR’S NOTE: This article is a translation. Apologies should the grammar and/or sentence structure need be perfect.