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Source: Federal Ministry for the environment nature conservation building and nuclear safety without climate protection program, Germany would be able to its greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, only 41 per cent lower. In the transport sector is achieved, therefore, by 2030, less than half of the necessary reduction.

Projection on behalf of the Federal Ministry for the environment calculated CO2 saving of 51 per cent by 2030 compared to 1990

With the 2030 climate protection program, Germany will reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 51 percent by 2030 compared to 1990. This is the result of an assessment of the overall reduction effect of the program, which experts have calculated on behalf of the Federal Environment Ministry. Without a climate protection program, Germany would only be able to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 41 percent by 2030. However, the measures adopted so far are not yet sufficient to achieve the German target of at least a 55 percent reduction by 2030. The research project on behalf of the Federal Ministry for the Environment and the Federal Environment Agency was led by the Öko-Institut and comes to the conclusion that, particularly in the sectors of transport (with a greenhouse gas reduction gap of 33 million tonnes of CO2 equivalents in 2030) and buildings (with a greenhouse gas reduction gap of 17 Millions of tons of CO2 equivalents in 2030) there is an additional need for action with a view to the coming years by 2030. Accordingly, less than half of the necessary reduction will be achieved in the transport sector by 2030. Federal Environment Minister Svenja Schulze: “The climate package takes us a big step forward . I think that encourages. It brings much more than many believe. But honesty also means that further measures are required to create the missing percentage points. The good thing is: In areas where politics has already successfully taken care of, we are largely on track, for example in industry or in the coal phase-out. On the other hand, there is still a lot to do in the transport sector, the new figures give us clear warning signals and show that the climate cabinet needs to take action. Nobody can accurately predict future emissions and the impact of climate protection measures. Plausible underlying assumptions play an important role here. Taking into account previous observations, the scenarios described here can be understood as the best possible approximation to reality. The study took into account the decisions of the Conciliation Committee with regard to CO2 pricing and the cabinet decision on the phaseout of coal in the modeling. The Öko-Institut study uses process-based energy system and emission calculation models. The models determine the energy-related emissions from the individual sectors, taking into account the measures adopted in the 2030 climate protection program. In addition, estimates are made for the development of non-energy-related emissions (which arise, for example, in agriculture or in industrial processing processes). The development of energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions are then integrated into a higher-level model, in which interactions between the individual sectors can also be taken into account. For example, the increased demand for electricity from more electric vehicles and the use of heat pumps has an impact on electricity generation. Coal phase-out and more renewable energies are also having an impact on the electricity sector. These interactions are mapped in an integrated model. The foreseeable development of greenhouse gas emissions as a whole can then be derived.To analyze whether the measures from the 2030 climate protection program are sufficient to achieve the goals, it must first be estimated how emissions would have developed in the future without the 2030 climate protection program. The basis for this are the past trends in emissions development that can be observed in the Federal Environment Agency’s greenhouse gas inventories. Together with data on the overall economic development in Germany, population development and the consideration of measures that have already been decided, this data can be used to derive foreseeable future trends in emissions development. The main results of the study can be found in this table:

GHG emissions in million t CO2-EQ.GHG emissions in million t CO2-EQ.

Assessment the BMU/UBA project (Öko-Institut e. V.

KSG ZielSektoren19902018202520302030energie466305241186175gebäude2101171058770verkehr16416215012895industrie284195161143140landwirtschaft9070676458abfall3810755summe1257858731614543minderung compared. 1990, in % (rounded)

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The short version of the study will be published today on the website of the UBA.

For more climate protection

05.03.2020 | Press Release No 041/20 | Climate Protection

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EDITOR’S NOTE: This article is a translation. Apologies should the grammar and/or sentence structure need be perfect.

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