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Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

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Jan 12, 2020 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Jan 12 06:47:47 UTC 2020 (Print Version |   |  )
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table

 Forecast Discussion

SPC AC 120647

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2020

Valid 131200Z – 141200Z

…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE ARKLATEX INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS…

…SUMMARY…
Thunderstorms associated with a marginal hail threat may occur
Monday night from parts of the Arklatex northeastward into the lower
Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys.

…Arklatex/Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys…
An upper-level trough will move quickly eastward from the Four
Corners region to the Great Plains on Monday. In response to the
upstream trough, a 50 to 70 kt low-level jet should develop across
the southern and central Plains on Monday. This feature will move
eastward into the Ozarks aiding moisture advection across the
region. Scattered thunderstorms may develop along the northern edge
of low-level moisture across Louisiana and Mississippi during the
afternoon with additional storm development taking place further
north during the evening and overnight period from southeast
Arkansas east-northeastward into the Tennessee Valley. Forecast
soundings Monday night on the northern edge of the moist airmass
show MUCAPE in the 800 to 1200 J/kg range with effective shear of 30
to 40 kt. This may be enough for a marginal hail threat with the
stronger cells mainly from far northeast Texas into southwest
Tennessee after midnight.

…MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD…
Tornado:

Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

 .

Jan 12, 2020 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Jan 12 06:47:47 UTC 2020 (Print Version |   |  )
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table

 Forecast Discussion

SPC AC 120647

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2020

Valid 131200Z – 141200Z

…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE ARKLATEX INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS…

…SUMMARY…
Thunderstorms associated with a marginal hail threat may occur
Monday night from parts of the Arklatex northeastward into the lower
Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys.

…Arklatex/Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys…
An upper-level trough will move quickly eastward from the Four
Corners region to the Great Plains on Monday. In response to the
upstream trough, a 50 to 70 kt low-level jet should develop across
the southern and central Plains on Monday. This feature will move
eastward into the Ozarks aiding moisture advection across the
region. Scattered thunderstorms may develop along the northern edge
of low-level moisture across Louisiana and Mississippi during the
afternoon with additional storm development taking place further
north during the evening and overnight period from southeast
Arkansas east-northeastward into the Tennessee Valley. Forecast
soundings Monday night on the northern edge of the moist airmass
show MUCAPE in the 800 to 1200 J/kg range with effective shear of 30
to 40 kt. This may be enough for a marginal hail threat with the
stronger cells mainly from far northeast Texas into southwest
Tennessee after midnight.

…MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD…
Tornado:

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