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Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

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Jan 12, 2020 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Click to see valid 1Z – 12Z Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Jan 12 05:38:17 UTC 2020 (Print Version |   |  )
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table

 Forecast Discussion

SPC AC 120538

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1138 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

Valid 121200Z – 131200Z

…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN DELMARVA INTO NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA…

…SUMMARY…
Gusty winds may be noted with thunderstorms early across portions of
the Middle Atlantic.

…Middle Atlantic/New England…

Strong short-wave trough will eject across the OH Valley into
western NY by the start of the day1 period, progressing into ME by
18z. In response to this feature, surface low will migrate into the
Hudson Valley by daybreak with a strong front expected to trail
southwest across VA into the southern Appalachians. Modified warm
sector has advanced inland across the northern Middle
Atlantic/southern New England late this evening as a warm front
currently stretches across NH/VT into upstate NY. While low-level
moisture has increased markedly across this region, forecast
profiles are not particularly buoyant, but early-day instability
should prove adequate for at least a threat of isolated elevated
thunderstorms. There is some concern that shallow frontal convection
may produce gusty winds, but this activity should not be deep enough
to produce lightning.

Farther south across the southern Delmarva into northeast NC,
forecast soundings exhibit more instability. Surface-based parcels
will likely be buoyant ahead of the front and scattered convection
should trail along the boundary, arcing from near the NJ Coast –
southeast VA – northeast NC at the start of the period. This
activity should advance quickly offshore as New England short wave
ejects east. Very strong deep-layer shear will prove supportive of
organized convection and locally damaging winds are possible with
this activity for the first few hours of the period. In addition to
potentially damaging winds, a tornado can not be ruled out.

..Darrow/Nauslar.. 01/12/2020

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