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Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

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Sep 10, 2019 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Sep 10 00:46:35 UTC 2019 (Print Version |   |  )
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table

 Forecast Discussion

SPC AC 100046

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0746 PM CDT Mon Sep 09 2019

Valid 100100Z – 101200Z

…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEAST IOWA
INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA…

…SUMMARY…
A few severe thunderstorms remain possible from Iowa into southwest
Wisconsin, and over northeast South Dakota this evening.

…IA into southwest WI…
Storms persist this evening over northeast IA near a warm front
which will continue advancing northeastward tonight. Strong
low-level shear near this boundary may support a localized tornado
threat with any of the strong cells. Otherwise, damaging winds
appear possible. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1943.

…Northeast SD into western MN…
Cells are beginning to develop over northeast SD near the surface
low. The 00Z ABR sounding shows sufficient instability to support
severe storms, but cooler surface temperatures exist just north and
east of the area. Therefore, it appears the severe threat will
remain confined to a small area, perhaps extending into west-central
MN later this evening. A supercell or two is possible, with hail, or
even a brief tornado should cells become severe before becoming
elevated. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1944.

..Jewell.. 09/10/2019

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