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Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

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Sep 8, 2019 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Sep 8 16:30:36 UTC 2019 (Print Version |   |  )
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table

 Forecast Discussion

SPC AC 081630

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Sun Sep 08 2019

Valid 081630Z – 091200Z

…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
EASTERN COLORADO…SOUTHEAST WYOMING…AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE…

…SUMMARY…
Severe thunderstorms with strong/gusty winds and hail will be
possible across parts of the central Rockies and adjacent High
Plains this afternoon and evening. Other strong storms may affect
parts of southeast Virginia and northeast North Carolina.

…Central Rockies into High Plains…
Morning water vapor loop shows a strong and progressive upper trough
moving across parts of NV/UT. This feature will track into WY/CO
later today, with an associated zone of enhanced forcing for ascent
overspreading the region. Strong daytime heating is occurring over
much of the mountains and foothills of CO, where steep low-level
lapse rates will develop and scattered thunderstorms are expected.
As these storms move off the higher terrain late this afternoon and
early evening, continued easterly low-level winds will help to
establish an axis of sufficient CAPE for a few robust
updrafts/downdrafts capable of damaging winds and some hail.
Vertical shear profiles are sufficient for supercell/bowing
structures. This activity will spread northeastward across the SLGT
risk area during the evening.

…VA/NC…
The southern fringe of stronger westerly flow aloft has sagged into
southeast VA/northeast NC today, where a very moist and potentially
unstable air mass is present. Dewpoints in the mid 70s and strong
heating will lead to moderate CAPE values and the development of a
few afternoon thunderstorms. Low-level winds are weak, suggesting
that storms will be rather disorganized. However, sufficient
midlevel winds and favorable thermodynamic parameters indicate a low
risk of gusty winds in the stronger cells.

..Hart/Wendt.. 09/08/2019

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