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Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

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Aug 15, 2019 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Aug 15 01:00:53 UTC 2019 (Print Version |   |  )
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table

 Forecast Discussion

SPC AC 150100

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2019

Valid 150100Z – 151200Z

…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EAST-CENTRAL
COLORADO AND FAR WESTERN KANSAS…THE BLACK HILLS VICINITY…

…SUMMARY…
Scattered severe thunderstorms with large hail and severe gusts are
possible across parts of the central and northern High Plains
tonight.

…Eastern CO into eastern NM…
Modest west-northwesterly mid-level flow will remain over the
central-southern High Plains to the northeast of a mid-level
anticyclone located over the Desert Southwest. Upslope low-level
flow ushering surface dewpoints in the 50s to lower 60s, coupled
with daytime heating has yielded moderate instability. The strongly
veering wind profile is supportive of organized storms but storm
coverage will likely remain isolated as convective inhibition via
boundary layer cooling occurs this evening. However, in the
meantime before storms dissipate later this evening, a risk for
large hail and severe gusts may accompany the stronger storms.
Farther south, diurnally developed storms will likely continue to
weaken over the next few hours across eastern NM due to the loss of
surface heating and with additional convective overturning expected.
A strong wind gust or hail cannot be ruled out over the next hour
before activity weakens.

…Eastern MT into western NE…
A weak mid-level disturbance evident in water vapor imagery this
evening over MT is forecast to move into the Dakotas late tonight.
A corridor of moderate instability is located northward through the
central High Plains into eastern MT. Isolated severe storms are
possible this evening mainly over eastern MT before warm advection
increases near the Black Hills late this evening into the overnight.
Given the strength of the wind profile sampled by the Rapid City,
SD evening raob (elongated hodograph), will maintain a categorical
slight risk for large hail where storm coverage is expected to be
highest from southeast MT into northwest NE.

..Smith.. 08/15/2019

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