MIL-OSI USA: SPC MD 1024

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Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Mesoscale Discussion 1024

Mesoscale Discussion 1024
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0548 PM CDT Mon Jul 09 2018

Areas affected…Northeast MT and northwest ND

Concerning…Severe potential…Watch possible

Valid 092248Z – 100045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance…60 percent

SUMMARY…Supercells over south-central Saskatchewan are expected to
spread southeast across the international border, with additional
storms potentially developing eastward. Very large hail and severe
wind gusts should be the primary hazards. Although spatial extent
may be limited, severe thunderstorm watch issuance is being
considered.

DISCUSSION…A trio of supercells are ongoing in south-central
Saskatchewan, due north of Valley and Daniels counties in northeast
MT. This activity has formed near the surface cyclone associated
with an eastward-moving shortwave impulse near the east-central
Alberta/west-central Saskatchewan border. Increasingly agitated
cumulus is noted in 1-minute updating visible satellite imagery to
the southeast of the southernmost supercell. This in conjunction
with east-southeast Bunkers right motion vectors suggest at least
one of these supercells should move across the international border
in the next few hours. In addition, low-level warm advection is
progged to intensify this evening likely resulting in elevated
convection rooted around 800-700 mb developing east towards central
ND. Owing to the presence of strong vertical speed shear amid steep
mid-level lapse rates of 7-8 C/km and moderate buoyancy, very large
hail and severe wind gusts will be possible.

..Grams/Broyles.. 07/09/2018

…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…

ATTN…WFO…BIS…GGW…

LAT…LON 49250166 48130142 47300174 46850283 46820425 47990555
49360663 49250166

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