MIL-OSI USA: SPC Jun 14, 2018 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

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Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

SPC AC 140035

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0735 PM CDT Wed Jun 13 2018

Valid 140100Z – 141200Z

…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND INTO VERMONT…

…SUMMARY…
Scattered severe storms remain possible across Pennsylvania, New
York, and Vermont. Isolated hail or wind is also possible across
the central High Plains, and later tonight near the middle Missouri
Valley.

…Northeast…
A broken line of storms persists along a cold front from central NY
into central PA, including a few supercells. The greatest low-level
shear, and potential for a brief tornado, currently extends from
northeastern PA into eastern NY, with 0-1 SRH in excess of 200
m2/s2. These storms may also pose a wind or marginal hail threat,
with the main risk expected to wane after 03Z with the loss of
heating. For more information, see mesoscale discussion 726.

…Central High Plains into the mid MO Valley…
Strong heating and mixing has led to scattered storms across the
central High Plains into New Mexico, with sporadic strong to severe
wind gusts measured this afternoon. 00Z soundings from LBF and DDC
do show convective inhibition to the east of these storms, thus
storm coverage is expected to decrease with time. Farther east into
the middle MO Valley, warm advection is expected to bring elevated
moisture into the area tonight in association with a 40+ kt veering
low-level jet. This should focus lift from eastern NE into
southwestern MN, and the environment may support an elevated hail
threat tonight.

..Jewell.. 06/14/2018

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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